Europe faces simulated food crisis amid global challenges A wake-up call for governments

In a two-day simulation held in central Brussels last month, European Union (EU) and government officials, alongside food security experts and industry representatives, grappled with the potential of a looming food crisis.

The exercise highlighted the vulnerability of Europe's food supply chain, given the convergence of global events impacting agriculture and distribution, Caliber.Az reports, citing Bloomberg.

The simulated crisis included a combination of factors such as the El Niño and La Niña effects severely affecting Latin American soy production, conflict between Ukrainian and Russian grain farmers, Indonesia's ban on palm oil shipments to Europe, and China's increasing demand for crops. Additionally, the Mediterranean region is facing worsening conditions resembling a desert.

While these events haven't transpired, the simulation aimed to prepare participants for potential real-world scenarios. An unidentified voice in a video broadcast set the tone: "Food shortage in Europe? The only question is when, but they don’t listen."

The urgency was palpable as attendees gathered in a refurbished art deco Shell building, mimicking a secure setting for discussions. The simulated imagery of drought, floods, and civil unrest underscored the gravity of the situation. Piotr Magnuszewski, a systems modeler and game designer, cautioned, "Expect a level of chaos."

The simulation reflects a growing level of concern among governments about securing food supplies in the face of multiple shocks over the past four years, including the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, disruptions in shipping routes, and erratic weather patterns disrupting farming.

As the year progresses into 2025, more harvest failures occur, impacting animal feed prices and subsequently reducing livestock and fish production. Allegations of corporate greed and conspiracy theories circulate, exacerbating tensions.

Katja Svensson, a senior food systems adviser to the Nordic Council of Ministers, emphasized the timeliness of the simulation, noting its immersive impact. Stress testing, common in the banking industry, is relatively rare in government-led exercises in Europe, particularly those focused on food security.

While Europe is among the world's major food suppliers with low levels of food insecurity, vulnerabilities exist. Weather-related events cost Europe over €50 billion ($54.3 billion) in economic losses in 2022. The cost of fertilizers and energy surged following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

As the simulation progressed, issues escalated in 2025 with looting, riots, and shortages in Germany. Concerns shift to profiteering by commodity traders, small farms collapsing, and attacks on immigrants becoming more widespread. The participants delved into proposing solutions, tackling issues from crisis management and building reserves to addressing food provision for the vulnerable.

Long-term concerns emerged, questioning Europe's overreliance on crop imports, especially soy for its meat and dairy industry. A taskforce pushed to cut subsidies for livestock farming. The second day included a mindfulness session, policy proposals, and discussions on shifting diets towards healthier options. Questions lingered about managing food reserves and monitoring stockpiles.

Participants identified additional topics for future exercises, including food safety, bioterrorism, countering disinformation, and preparing for animal-borne diseases. Chris Hegadorn, a retired US diplomat and co-organizer of the workshop, emphasized the lack of preparedness among European governments for managing future food crises. "Crises are only going to come faster and harder," Hegadorn warned.