Expectations from Iran-Azerbaijan “roller-coaster” relationship

On July 5, the Iranian foreign minister who was invited to Baku to attend a ministerial meeting of the Coordinating Bureau of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), told the Azerbaijani president that both countries enjoyed positive dynamics in the development of economic and trade relations. In turn, President Ilham Aliyev expressed hope that the persons convicted of the terrorist attack on Azerbaijan’s embassy in Iran would be punished justly.

This was the first trip to Baku by a senior Iranian official since the deadly attack at the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran in late January. Following the attack, Azerbaijan closed its embassy and expelled four Iranian diplomats, and which was later reciprocated by Iran.

On June 3, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan issued a warning statement for its citizens, urging them not to travel to Iran unless it is necessary and for those who are already in Iran to take the utmost precaution and security measures.

In turn, Spokesperson for Iran's Foreign Ministry Nasser Kanaani criticised Azerbaijan's advice to its nationals not to travel to Iran unless necessary, and accused Israel of being behind the decision.

The warning came amid the detention of young Azerbaijani citizen Farid Safarli in March 2023, when he travelled to Iran from Germany for personal reasons. Although the Iranian authorities earlier denied having information about Safarli’s whereabouts, on June 1, they confirmed the detention of Safarli, who faced espionage charges.

“Positive” economic dynamics

Following the 5 July meeting, Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian wrote on Twitter that he had a "constructive, comprehensive, and fruitful" talk with Aliyev and predicted that the meeting would result "in a new chapter in relations between the friendly and fraternal" countries.

During their meeting, the two sides hailed the upward dynamics of economic and trade relations in recent years and shared their views on the North-South Transport Corridor and, along with this route, the outlook for the realization of the communication links between the East Zangezur economic region and Azerbaijan’s landlocked exclave Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic.

Amir-Abdollahian announced after the meeting that the two countries have agreed to activate the South Araz corridor connecting the main part of Azerbaijan with Nakhchivan in the near future, and "this will give impetus to Iranian-Azerbaijani relations in the field of communications”.

In March 2022, Azerbaijan and Iran signed a document on building new communication lines between Azerbaijan's southwestern Eastern Zangazur economic region and Nakhchivan via Iran. According to the deal, the new corridor will be laid through the territory of Iran about 5 km south of the Armenian-Iranian border which will consist of a railway line, a multi-lane highway, power transmission lines and digital communications. The 50-km route will start in the village of Agband in Azerbaijan's Zangilan District and go to the village of Kotan in Nakhchivan's Ordubad District via Iran.

Iran fears that the proposed "Zangazur corridor" will sever Iran's land connection with Armenia, and limit its access to the Black Sea and Russia. So, Tehran offers incentives to Azerbaijan and Turkey to use Iranian territory for transport and energy transit, thereby forgoing the need to establish the Zangazur corridor. The new corridor will actually duplicate the Zangazur corridor envisaged by clause 9 of the Russian-brokered trilateral statement that ended the Second Karabakh War between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the autumn of 2020.

Following his 12-13 June visit to Azerbaijan, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused Iran of opposing the Zangazur corridor. In recent years, Turkey has been pushing ahead with plans to connect with Azerbaijan via the Nakhchivan exclave, bypassing Armenia through the corridor.

In addition, Azerbaijan and Iran play an important role in the development of the North-South Transport Corridor (NSTC). On 17 May, Iran and Russia signed an agreement on the construction of a 162-km railway connecting the Iranian cities of Rasht and Astara near the Azerbaijani border. The railway is the only unfinished section of the land link of the NSTC connecting India to Russia via Iran and Azerbaijan.

Efforts to ease political tensions

Tensions have been rising between Azerbaijan and Iran, with Tehran perceiving Azerbaijani-Israeli cooperation as a security threat. The bilateral relations have also been deteriorating, due to Iran’s activities in the region, including its large-scale military drills near Azerbaijani borders and growing support for Armenia.

The Iranian authorities have been seen intensifying their bellicose rhetoric against Azerbaijan following the opening of the Azerbaijani embassy in Israel in late March. During the post-opening press conference in Tel Aviv, Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen said Azerbaijan and Israel share threats caused by Iran, which “creates non-stability in the Middle East by supporting and financing terrorism,” and called for joint action to contain Iran’s nuclear expansion.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reportedly supports proxy groups which recruit radical Muslims and frequently issue threats towards Baku. On April 1, Huseyniyyun warned Baku of the “consequences of its engagement with Israel,” while Iranian MP Ruhollah Mutafkerazad accused Azerbaijan of being “an instrument” of Israel.

At the July 5 meeting in Baku, in a reference to Tehran’s long-standing worries about possible Israeli strikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites, which Israel considers as threatening its survival, President Aliyev pledged that his country's soil will not be used for "threats" against Iran.

The Iranian foreign minister, in turn, underlined the will of the two countries to improve bilateral relations, saying that “with the positive atmosphere being formed in the relations between the two countries and especially overcoming some misunderstandings, Iran declares its readiness to follow up and fulfil all previous agreements”. 

Referring to Iran's investigations regarding the attack on the Azerbaijani embassy, the top Iranian diplomat expressed hope that the activities of the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran will soon be restored.

Azerbaijan received several appeals from the Iranian side in connection with the resumption of the activities of diplomatic mission, but Baku is in no hurry to take a decision in this regard.

Azerbaijan’s Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov said on June 5 that “the Azerbaijani side should be absolutely sure that criminals and orderers [of the terrorist attack on the Azerbaijani embassy] will be brought to justice and severely punished. All relevant guarantees should be provided to the Azerbaijani side not in words, but in deeds".