Experts warn: Armenia's westward drift imperils statehood amid Moscow rift Navigating between Scylla and Charybdis

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk, speaking at the 10th international forum "Primakov Readings," highlighted Armenia's increasing tilt towards the West and its potential ramifications.

"There is a well-known half-joke that Nikol Vovayevich uttered in one of his interviews. Asked when he would join the EU if he had the opportunity to choose for himself, Pashinyan joked: 'This year'." There are also discussions about holding a referendum on EU accession," Overchuk recalled.

Overchuk emphasized that benefits from Russia should be seen as contributions to security, warning of consequences if extra-regional players intervene in Armenia. This raises questions about Armenia's strategic direction and practical steps amid its EAEU membership discussions.

He also acknowledged existing grievances within Armenian society towards Russia. "There is such a perspective, and it should be understood," he remarked. Overchuk emphasized the incompatibility between the EU and the EAEU, suggesting that benefits derived from close ties with Russia should be viewed as contributions towards security and strategic depth. He cautioned that the involvement of external players could lead to consequences, stressing Russia's interest in maintaining stability and strong trade and fraternal relations with Armenia.

What consequences for Armenia on the part of the Russian Federation the Russian Deputy Prime Minister is talking about? What can they be expressed in? How long will the Armenian leadership be able to talk about the desire to get closer to the EU and at the same time do nothing in practice to leave the EAEU?

Foreign experts shared their thoughts on the matter with Caliber.Az.

Analyst and Director of the Institute of World Politics in Bishkek, Sheradil Baktygulov, pointed out significant trade figures to illustrate Armenia's economic ties.

He mentioned that in 2023, Armenia's trade with EAEU countries had grown by 42.7%, reaching a total of USD 7.6 billion. Notably, he highlighted that 90% of this trade volume, approximately $7.3 billion, was with Russia. In contrast, he noted that Armenia's trade turnover with EU countries in 2023 amounted to about $2.3 billion. He also pointed out that Armenia exported goods worth around $7 billion and imported goods valued at approximately $11 billion. According to him, Russia emerged as Armenia's largest trading partner, both in terms of imports and exports. He added that the UAE followed as the second-largest importer with about $1.4 billion, while China ranked second in terms of imports with approximately $900 million. He also provided a comparison, mentioning that the Netherlands held the largest share of imports from the EU at around $600 million, and Germany led in exports to Armenia with about $500 million.

He argues that Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk, while not a diplomat, plays a crucial role in coordinating Russia's integration policies within the Eurasian space and its engagements in multilateral cooperation formats.

"Therefore, statements could be interpreted as a signal to Armenia to bargain. There are clear indications from Armenia in this regard. For instance, EU accession procedures do not include provisions for a referendum on membership, which Armenia has considered. Such referendums, even if conducted quarterly, would not facilitate EU accession. Moreover, Armenia would need to adhere to EU standards, necessitating substantial domestic reforms such as combating corruption, implementing human rights norms, and transitioning to a market economy. This would include enacting laws and potentially returning lands and homes to displaced ethnic Azerbaijanis, a step Armenia is currently unprepared for," the expert said.

He further added that Armenia is unwilling to meet these conditions to loosen Russia's influence, even with potential annual Western aid of $7 billion, and is adamantly opposed to returning lands and homes to Azerbaijanis, actively obstructing any such efforts. This stance suggests Armenia may violate a key requirement for EU membership.

"Ending ties with Moscow would lead to the breakdown of Armenian statehood. Armenia has traditionally had close relations with Moscow, second only to Belarus. Moreover, ordinary Russians sympathize with Armenia. For ordinary Russians, moving closer to the EU and distancing from the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and Russia would signify Armenia turning against an ally. This is because the EU and the US have imposed the most sanctions on Russia, causing distress to both ordinary and non-ordinary Russian citizens. Therefore, regardless of how the Armenian authorities present their actions, they are already being perceived as a betrayal by Russia. Unfortunately, such actions can make Armenia appear as if it is siding with the enemy. This would require Armenia to publicly declare support for the ongoing Russian military operation, which would mark the end of the alliance between Armenia and Russia. In response, Russia would take corresponding measures across all areas of cooperation with Armenia. Western countries, particularly France, which strongly supports Armenia, would not be able to quickly compensate Armenia for the losses resulting from severing ties with Russia," Baktygulov believes.

However, he argues, the issue isn't about choosing between Russia or the EU.

"It's possible to cooperate with everyone. The main mistake Armenia makes is trying to favour one side at the expense of the other. Armenian authorities should focus on national prosperity rather than picking sides. Politicians likely understand this but continue confrontational policies with Russia to extract more benefits from either Russia or the EU. The real question is: who benefits from this, themselves or the people? Deceiving the hopes of ordinary people is dishonourable and ultimately leads to a political collapse in the medium term," Baktygulov emphasized.

Kazakhstani political analyst Aidar Amrebayev suggested that Overchuk's speech appears not just as a veiled threat but rather a "final warning" to Armenia regarding its potential pivot towards the West...

"The consequences could range widely: from mild sanctions affecting economic ties, which could significantly impact Armenia, heavily reliant on Russia, to the implementation of a hybrid special operation aimed at coercively redirecting the foreign policy orientation of 'former Soviet Armenia'... We've witnessed similar scenarios in other post-Soviet nations that ventured to adopt non-Russian foreign policies. The Armenian leadership faces a tough decision akin to navigating between Scylla and Charybdis," Amrebayev emphasized.