France warns military conflict with Iran "almost inevitable" without new nuclear deal

France’s Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot warned on April 2 that if world powers fail to reach a new agreement with Iran over its nuclear program in the coming months, a military confrontation would become "almost inevitable."

Barrot's remarks came after President Emmanuel Macron held a rare, undisclosed meeting with key ministers and experts to discuss Iran’s nuclear dossier. European powers are racing to secure a diplomatic solution before October 2025, when UN sanctions linked to the 2015 nuclear accord are set to expire.

“The window of opportunity is narrow. We only have a few months until the expiration of this (2015) accord. In case of failure, a military confrontation would seem to be almost inevitable,” Barrot told a parliamentary hearing, Caliber.Az reports, referring to Western media.

Western powers argue that Iran’s nuclear program is a covert effort to develop nuclear weapons, a claim Tehran has consistently denied. European officials are working to establish a diplomatic pathway to curb Iran’s uranium enrichment activities before the summer.

The urgency of the situation has prompted concerns among Washington’s European allies that the US and Israel might resort to military action unless a new deal is reached swiftly. A high-level cabinet meeting on April 1un, confirmed by three diplomatic sources, underscored the mounting tensions and the need for an immediate resolution.

The US has already reinforced its military presence in the Middle East, with additional warplanes deployed as part of its ongoing bombing campaign against the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, the Pentagon announced on Tuesday.

A senior European official suggested that some strategists were questioning whether this military buildup could be a precursor to a US strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities in the coming months.

Adding to the pressure, former US President Donald Trump, who has urged Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to negotiate, issued a warning on Sunday. He threatened Tehran with bombings and secondary tariffs if it failed to agree to a deal over its nuclear program.

Meanwhile, Israel’s Foreign Minister is set to visit Paris on Thursday, a move seen as part of intensified diplomatic efforts amid rising tensions.

Diplomatic sources indicate that ministers from France, Britain, and Germany—three key parties to the 2015 deal—are hoping to discuss the Iran dossier with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio at an upcoming NATO ministerial meeting in Brussels.

The 2015 nuclear agreement imposed strict limits on Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief. However, Trump withdrew the US from the deal, leading to Iran significantly exceeding the enrichment limits set in the agreement. Iran has since accumulated uranium stockpiles enriched to levels far beyond what is needed for civilian energy purposes, approaching the threshold for nuclear weapons capability, according to Western powers.

European nations have been trying to pressure Iran into rejoining negotiations, holding multiple rounds of talks, including technical-level discussions last week. However, diplomats note that coordination has been complicated by the Trump administration’s initial focus on a "maximum pressure" strategy against Iran.

The European powers still have the option to trigger a full reinstatement of UN sanctions before October. Their goal is to convince Iran to accept new restrictions on its nuclear activities by August at the latest.

Such a timeline would allow enough time to establish fresh limits on Iran’s nuclear program and begin easing sanctions before the 2015 accord expires in October 2025.

However, with diplomatic efforts running against the clock and military tensions rising, the risk of confrontation appears to be growing.

By Tamilla Hasanova