FT: Russia’s drone swarms overwhelm Ukraine’s air defences as hit rates surge

Russia’s intensifying use of “swarm” drone tactics is proving increasingly effective against Ukraine’s air defences, with Shahed drones striking targets at nearly triple the previous rate.

Between April and June, around 15 per cent of Shahed drones successfully penetrated Ukrainian defences, up from just 5 per cent in the first three months of the year. The uptick in successful strikes reflects Moscow’s evolving strategy of using overwhelming numbers of drones to bypass Kyiv’s increasingly strained air defence systems, Caliber.Az reports, citing foreign media.

The Iranian-designed Shahed drones, now manufactured domestically by Russia and renamed Geran, are being deployed in massive numbers. A record assault on July 9 saw 728 Shahed drones and decoys launched, along with seven Iskander cruise missiles and six Kinzhal ballistic missiles.

“The problem is not [that] the Ukraine air defence is getting worse. Instead, what we see is that new swarming tactics and drones are now flying in higher altitude, [which] makes them more effective,” said Yasir Atalan of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), who analyzed Ukrainian attack data.

Recent innovations by Russia, including turbo-charged variants like the Geran-3, capable of diving at 800km/h, have made interception more difficult. These enhancements allow drones to fly beyond the effective range of truck-mounted machine guns, long used by Ukraine to counter low-flying threats.

“The increase in sheer size in launches saturates the defence systems which increases the hit rate,” Atalan added.

Ukrainian air defences currently rely on a combination of electronic warfare, anti-aircraft guns, and the advanced Oerlikon Skynex system from Germany. However, Kyiv faces growing concerns over dwindling supplies of Patriot missile interceptors, with Tom Karako of CSIS warning, “There is a line down the block and around the corner to get more [Patriot] interceptors. Many of them will be waiting for a while.”

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted that Ukraine is “already shooting down dozens of Shaheds” per attack with domestically produced interceptor drones, part of a new partnership with US firm Swift Beat to scale production. He added: “Every meeting with partners this week was about scaling up this technology.”

By Vafa Guliyeva