French government on the brink of collapse as no-confidence vote looms The Guardian’s predictions

The British newspaper The Guardian has published an article dedicated to the political crisis in France. Caliber.Az provides to the readers the paraphrased excerpts from the piece.

The French government, led by Prime Minister Michel Barnier, is likely to face defeat in a vote of no confidence, which could intensify the political crisis in one of the EU's key member states.

If Barnier is ousted, it will be the first time since 1962 that a French government has fallen due to a no-confidence vote. His downfall at the hands of far-right and far-left parties would be a serious blow to Europe.

The vote risked making “everything more difficult and more serious”, Barnier told MPs on December 3, adding that France’s situation was already “difficult in budgetary and financial terms” and “very difficult in economic and social terms”.

Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau, who holds a tough stance, stated that if the government was toppled it would “throw France and the French into an insufferable situation”. Those backing the motion were playing “Russian roulette” with its future, he said.

Parliamentary debates are set to begin today at 16:00 local time (19:00 Baku time), with the vote expected to take place approximately three hours later. Two separate no-confidence motions have been submitted by left-wing and right-wing opposition parties, and it is predicted that the first one will pass. This moment of truth risks plunging Paris into political and financial uncertainty. The crisis in France, which has been brewing for the last three months, finally erupted when Barnier announced he would push through a social security funding bill in parliament without a vote. The constitutional measure that allows him to do this, known as Article 49.3, gives parliamentarians the ability to challenge the government's decision via a vote of no confidence. If the vote succeeds, the government will resign.

“Blocking this budget is, alas, the only way the constitution gives us to protect the French people from a dangerous, unfair and punitive budget,” Marine Le Pen, of the far-right National Rally (RN), the largest single party in parliament, said on December 3.

Prime Minister Barnier, appointed by Macron after the snap June elections, which resulted in the lower house of parliament being divided into three blocks without a clear majority, attempted to gain parliamentary support for passing the budget law aimed at restoring France's dire financial situation. His proposals included tax increases and cuts to public spending amounting to around 60 billion euros, aimed at reducing the country’s budget deficit.

Despite several concessions by the conservative prime minister, the left-wing alliance "New People's Front" (NFP) and the National Rally (RN) introduced motions of no confidence. Le Pen confirmed that her party would vote in favour of the proposal from the NFP, put forward by the ‘Unsubmissive France’ (LFI) party.

French Finance Minister Antoine Arman stated in an interview with public television France 2 that opposition deputies would ‘damage’ the country by ousting the government. ‘Who will be responsible for the consequences?’ he asked. ‘First and foremost, the French.’

If Barnier's government falls, it will be the shortest tenure since the founding of the Fifth Republic in 1958. Although the prime minister would have to submit his resignation, Macron could ask him to remain temporarily in office. In principle, a temporary government could pass a special emergency budget law, which would carry over spending limits and tax provisions from this year to the next, meaning there would be no immediate risk of a government shutdown in the American style," the article concludes.