FT: Trump administration to re-implement "maximum pressure" strategy against Iran

The incoming Trump administration plans to reinstate its "maximum pressure" strategy to curb Iran's ability to fund regional proxies and advance its nuclear program.

As part of this approach, the Trump team intends to significantly tighten sanctions on Tehran, particularly targeting its vital oil exports, Caliber.Az reports citing FT's piece.

These measures are set to be implemented immediately after Trump takes office in January.

The primary goal of this strategy is to reduce Iran's economic revenues, primarily from oil, which are used to fund its military activities and regional proxy groups. With sanctions on Iran already in place, the Trump administration plans to take a more aggressive stance, tightening existing restrictions and introducing new ones to further isolate Tehran economically. A central focus will be cutting Iran’s oil exports, which have surged in recent years, particularly to China.

In addition to economic sanctions, the broader aim is to pressure Iran into negotiating a new nuclear deal while also curbing its destabilizing influence across the Middle East. Trump’s first term saw the withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear agreement and the imposition of severe sanctions, which had a significant impact on Iran’s economy but also prompted Tehran to accelerate its nuclear activities, including uranium enrichment.

Since Biden's administration took over, the sanctions have largely remained, but enforcement has been less stringent as the Biden administration sought to revive the nuclear deal. As a result, Iran's oil exports have rebounded, tripling over the past few years, with most of it shipped to China. The Trump transition team is preparing executive orders to be issued on the first day of his presidency, aimed at reversing this trend and further crippling Iran's economy.

The “maximum pressure” strategy is intended to force Iran back to the negotiating table, where the US hopes to secure a more favourable nuclear agreement and push for changes in Iran’s regional policies. However, experts suggest that this approach is unlikely to lead to quick results. While some advisers within the Trump camp are hopeful that the strategy will push Iran to negotiate, others remain cautious, citing Iran’s growing nuclear capabilities and the long-standing mistrust between the two nations.

Iran has continued to support proxy groups across the Middle East, including those involved in hostilities with Israel. The conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated in recent years, with direct missile exchanges and attacks between the two nations. This has further complicated the possibility of diplomatic progress. Despite these tensions, Iran's new government, led by President Masoud Pezeshkian, has expressed interest in reopening talks with the West, although it insists on the removal of sanctions first.

While the Trump administration hopes to leverage sanctions to induce meaningful negotiations, experts doubt that progress is likely, especially considering the deepening tensions and the political complexity surrounding the issue. The situation remains volatile, and the chances for a breakthrough, given the history of failed talks and ongoing hostility, appear slim.

The planned sanctions, if fully enacted, could severely undermine Iran's economic stability. As its economy is already fragile, these measures could deepen the country’s financial distress, further isolating it from the global economy. If successful, they would also restrict Iran's ability to fund proxy groups and expand its nuclear program, but whether this will push Iran into meaningful talks remains uncertain.

This approach is further complicated by Iran’s growing nuclear program and its leadership's refusal to negotiate under pressure. Iran’s foreign minister has warned that a reintroduction of maximum pressure would lead to failure, emphasizing that any negotiations must respect Iran’s sovereignty and rights.

Ultimately, the success of the "maximum pressure" campaign will depend on the willingness of both sides to negotiate and find common ground. Given the complex history and ongoing regional dynamics, it remains to be seen whether this strategy will lead to the desired results or further escalate tensions between the US and Iran.

By Tamilla Hasanova