FT: Ukraine ceasefire to heighten Russian threat in Baltic, warn ministers

A ceasefire in Ukraine would significantly amplify the security threat to the Baltic states, defence ministers have cautioned, as Russia would have the opportunity to re-arm and redeploy forces to NATO’s northeastern flank.

Thus, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, which regained independence from the Soviet Union in the 1990s, are concerned that Moscow will extend its ambitions beyond Ukraine once a ceasefire is brokered, particularly by the Trump administration, Caliber.Az reports via the Financial Times.

The Baltic nations point out that Russia has already set out plans for increased military production and the positioning of additional troops along their borders.

“We all understand that when the war in Ukraine will be stopped, Russia will redistribute its forces very quickly,” Estonian Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur told the Financial Times. “That means also the threat level will increase significantly very quickly.”

Lithuanian Defence Minister Dovilė Šakalienė echoed these concerns during a recent visit to the UK.

“Let’s not have any illusions. Let’s not lie to ourselves that Russia is going to be done after Ukraine,” she said. “Russia will use this time following a ceasefire to speed up its military capabilities. They already have a huge, battlefield-trained army, which is going to get even bigger.”

The Trump administration has been leading negotiations with both Russia and Ukraine over an end to the war, but a full ceasefire is still seen as distant. Kyiv has agreed to halt hostilities in the Black Sea and a US-backed 30-day ceasefire, but Moscow has thus far only committed to pausing attacks on energy infrastructure, with any full compliance conditioned on the lifting of Western sanctions.

A cessation of fighting would enable Russia to implement its 2022 plans to raise a 1.5 million-strong army and establish a new army corps in the north, significantly increasing the number of troops near Finland and the Baltics.

Pevkur estimated that of the 600,000 Russian troops currently in Ukraine, approximately 300,000 would likely be redeployed. “These men will not go back to different parts of Russia to harvest the corn or do something else because the salary they are getting in the army is like five to 10 times more than what they could get in their home town.”

Baltic nations are particularly concerned about the Zapad military exercise, scheduled for this autumn near their borders in Russia and Belarus. Held every four years, these drills simulate conflict with NATO countries and involve tens of thousands of troops, tanks, aircraft, and artillery.

Both ministers also warned against the redeployment of NATO troops from their countries to form a “European reassurance force” to be stationed in post-conflict Ukraine as a deterrent against further Russian aggression.

“We cannot jeopardise the security of the eastern flank of NATO,” Pevkur said. “We cannot fall into the trap that our forces are somehow fixed in Ukraine. Then we will have risks at our border.”

NATO’s eastern flank nations, including Poland and Romania, have expressed concerns about committing troops to Ukraine at the cost of their own security. Estonia has also opposed UK plans to redeploy British forces designated for Baltic defence to Ukraine.

Currently, Lithuania is defended by a German brigade, which is set to be stationed there in the coming months, Latvia is protected by a multinational force led by Canada, and Estonia is safeguarded by a British brigade, which can be deployed from the UK at short notice.

“We’ve got just under a thousand UK troops in Estonia at the moment,” said British Defence Secretary John Healey earlier this week. “That consistent ironclad commitment to Estonia will continue — and it will continue because Estonia and our troops are on the front line of NATO.”

By Aghakazim Guliyev