Georgia and the new geopolitical landscape From the “second front” to peace

The geopolitical landscape surrounding Georgia has changed significantly compared to the past year. Just three months ago, there was no shortage of forecasts predicting the supposedly "inevitable" overthrow of the Georgian Dream party through a "Maidan-style" uprising, as it dared to "defy" its Western partners by refusing to open a "second front" against Russia. Today, however, with the new U.S. administration led by Donald Trump, the focus is no longer on opening a "second front" but rather on swiftly ending the war on the "first" one.

The policy of the Georgian Dream, which successfully avoided involving its country in a war against Russia, fully aligns with the policy of Donald Trump. On February 18 and 19, the new U.S. president essentially blamed the current Ukrainian leadership under Volodymyr Zelenskyy for bringing the situation to war with Russia and for failing to attempt resolving the conflict through negotiations over the past three years. Trump also accused Ukraine's leadership of spending vast amounts of U.S. aid on the war, a significant portion of which simply "disappeared," unaccounted for, and achieved no results other than massive casualties.

Earlier, Donald Trump had expressed his negative stance on Ukraine's accession to NATO. It is worth recalling that the deterioration of relations between Russia, Georgia, and Ukraine, which led to wars, became irreversible after NATO membership was promised to Tbilisi and Kyiv in early 2008. As it turned out, the initial excessive hopes of the Georgian and later the Ukrainian leadership for NATO led to both Georgia in August 2008 and Ukraine in February 2022 finding themselves alone against the Russian military machine.

"We were called to join sanctions, send volunteers, although we are not members of NATO or the European Union. 20% of our territory is occupied. We were left alone in the face of nuclear power, with promises to supply us with weapons... Young pro-Europeans urged us to go to war against Russia. The government at that time had to yield to this pressure. The question arises: should Georgia have participated in this war? We especially felt the support of the people, who defended us on the path to peace. One day, history will recognize that we saved the country. We must tell the truth to our citizens," said Georgian President Mikheil Kavelashvili in an interview with Radio Courtoisie.

According to him, Georgia hopes that the policy of the new Donald Trump administration "will influence Tbilisi's relations with the U.S. and the EU." "It is funny that some liberal leaders are now adapting to Trump's position... We are a small country, and let me remind you, this pressure on Georgia began after the war in Ukraine started. Our position is clear: this war in Ukraine must end. We have been saying this from the very beginning. Today, Trump is saying the same thing, but we are not followers of his position—we have stated this from the very first day of the war," Kavelashvili emphasized.

Thus, the resilience and principled stance of Georgia’s authorities in defending national sovereignty and preventing the country from being drawn into a war with Russia may soon be rewarded. Unlike the Biden administration, the Trump administration has no intention of applying the Ukrainian "war of attrition" scenario to Georgia or changing the government through a "Maidan." On the contrary, the pragmatism of the Georgian Dream in its relations with Russia is largely what the Trump administration would have wanted from Ukraine's leadership. It is possible that, in the process of ending the war between Ukraine and Russia, Tbilisi's policy may be cited as an example for Kyiv. After Ukraine's elections (the necessity of which was pointed out by Donald Trump himself), Washington may prefer to see pragmatically-minded politicians in power in Kyiv, similar to those in Tbilisi. As a result, no new American sanctions against Bidzina Ivanishvili and senior Georgian officials are expected in the near future.

The Munich Security Conference effectively closed the issue of the West's recognition of the results of Georgia's parliamentary elections on October 26, 2024, and the legitimacy of the current Georgian government. At the conference, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance harshly criticized the European practice of "selective recognition" of elections, specifically referring to the annulment of the first round of the Romanian presidential elections, where a candidate disliked by the liberal EU establishment had won. After such a statement by the U.S. Vice President, it is unlikely that the EU will insist on "non-recognition" of the elections in Georgia. The European Parliament's resolution from February 13, 2025, recognizing Salome Zourabichvili as the "acting president" and demanding new elections, will likely be ignored and will not have any political significance or consequences.

If Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan managed to "rush" to Washington after the inauguration of the new U.S. President Trump and meet with Vice President Vance, then the Georgian Dream government has no urgent need to seek the support of the new American authorities. Unlike the current leadership of Armenia, the Georgian Dream government has not been seen aligning itself with the previous administration of Joe Biden. While there have been no direct high-level contacts between Georgia's authorities and the new U.S. leadership so far, there are sufficient indirect signs of loyalty from the new White House administration towards Georgia's government. Moreover, the government of Irakli Kobakhidze is supported by one of the most consistent Trump supporters among European leaders—Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

Still calling herself the "legitimate president of Georgia," Salome Zourabichvili openly complained at the Munich Security Conference about the West's insufficient attention to the alleged "violations of democracy" in Georgia, referring to the declining support for her attempts to orchestrate a coup and seize power. Meanwhile, upon returning from the Munich conference on February 18, 2025, Salome Zourabichvili was pelted with eggs at Tbilisi Airport. A day earlier, a similar reception was held for one of the opposition leaders, Giorgi Gakharia, at the same airport. No "protests of outrage" were organized by their supporters in response, nor were there any significant outbursts on social media regarding the actual humiliation of opposition leaders.

Salome Zourabichvili herself filed a complaint with the General Prosecutor's Office of Georgia regarding the airport incident, preparing a medical report claiming she had allegedly "sustained bodily injuries." Interestingly, it is Zourabichvili—outraged by the "non-lethal" eggs thrown at her—who, during protests, incited participants to shoot fireworks at police officers (resulting in real injuries to many) and to throw "Molotov cocktails," actions that could have led to fatalities. Furthermore, as Tbilisi Mayor Kakha Kaladze pointed out, it was Zourabichvili, while serving as President of Georgia, who pardoned Lazare Grigoriadis, a person accused of attacking police officers.

"What you sow, you shall reap," stated Mamuka Mdinaradze, Executive Secretary of the ruling Georgian Dream party, commenting on the egging of Gakharia and Zourabichvili. However, he also emphasized that the airport incident was morally wrong.

Protest activity in Tbilisi is gradually waning, particularly noticeable after the cold snap on February 19, 2025 – on this day, there were no opposition street actions. Mzia Amaglobeli, the founder of Georgian opposition online media outlets, also ended her hunger strike. Despite efforts to portray her as a "martyr," those attempting to turn her into one failed to gain "national support for the regime's prisoner." With each passing day, the protests demanding Amaglobeli's release became smaller. Society is slowly forgetting the opposition "revolutionaries," who themselves are facing increasing problems as USAID funding has ceased.

The reluctance of the Georgian Dream government to impose sanctions on Russia and confront Moscow also aligns with the new White House policy towards Russia. Analysts predict a likely softening or lifting of American sanctions against Russia if peace is established in Ukraine. During a meeting in Riyadh, delegations from the U.S. and Russia reached an agreement to resume full operations of their embassies in Moscow and Washington, respectively. Russian media also reported on who might become the U.S. ambassador to Russia—according to Russian Kommersant, Richard Norland, who served as the U.S. ambassador to Georgia from 2012 to 2015 during the rise of the Georgian Dream party, is likely to be appointed. Norland has good relations with the leadership of this party, which could be a positive factor in resolving issues between Russia and Georgia.

Vladimir Tskhvediani, Georgia, for Caliber.Az