How did Khamenei orchestrate Pezeshkian's unexpected path to Iran's presidency?

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei orchestrated the rise of a little-known moderate, Massoud Pezeshkian, to the presidency in a carefully planned election, according to an article by Reuters.

Intelligence reports in May indicated a potential low turnout due to widespread dissatisfaction with economic hardships and social restrictions. Concerned about the clerical establishment's credibility, Khamenei met with his trusted advisers to strategize the election, focusing on Pezeshkian as a candidate who could unite different factions and ensure stability.

The election followed the unexpected death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash, which created a power vacuum and a rush among hardliners to influence the selection of Khamenei's successor. Khamenei's meetings involved senior officials and security aides, including his adviser Ali Akbar Velayati and top commanders of the Revolutionary Guards. The plan aimed to preserve the Islamic Republic amidst domestic unrest and international tensions, particularly with the West and Israel.

Pezeshkian, initially unaware of the behind-the-scenes decisions, was encouraged by pragmatic former officials to run in the June 28 election. Despite his lack of anticipation, he was approved by the Guardian Council, known for disqualifying moderate candidates in the past. To maintain an appearance of fairness, two hardline candidates, Saeed Jalili and Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, were also approved, ensuring the hardliner votes would be divided.

Pezeshkian's mild profile was seen as a way to appease discontented Iranians and maintain domestic stability. His election was described as "engineered" to defuse tensions after protests in 2022 and stricter social curbs. His victory in the first round, backed by urban middle-class and young voters, led to a run-off against Jalili. Fearing Jalili's hardline policies, many voters shifted their support to Pezeshkian, resulting in a final turnout of nearly 50%.

Pezeshkian, a 69-year-old heart surgeon, won the presidency with 54% of the vote. He expressed gratitude to Khamenei for ensuring proper vote counting. As president, Pezeshkian has pledged to adopt a pragmatic foreign policy, ease tensions over nuclear deal talks, and advocate for social liberalization. However, analysts remain sceptical about his ability to fulfil all campaign promises, given his stated intention not to confront Iran's powerful clerics and security forces.