How is Middle East crisis reverberating in South Caucasus? Expert Konstantin Pakhalyuk explains

In an interview with Caliber.Az, Russian-Israeli expert Konstantin Pakhalyuk shared his standpoint on ongoing development in the Middle East and its possible consequences for the South Caucasus.

- Why do you think the USA provoked a new war in the Middle East by attacking the Yemeni Houthis?

- Well, the provocation was not from the US, it was from the Houthis, who declared war on Israel and obstructed navigation in the Red Sea area. In this case, we are seeing a sharp defrosting of the conflicts that existed previously. The situation around the Palestinian territories has been frozen for a long time. The civil war in Yemen has also become less intense in recent years. Other regional powers, such as Saudi Arabia, have been on the sidelines, leaving the US and its allies to shoulder the costs of this war. The situation in Gaza is developing according to the same logic: the Arab world is on the sidelines, and the Hamas problem is Israel's problem, with all its costs. The real strategy is as follows: since the pro-Iranian extremists have decided to escalate the violence, they should let others pacify it.

- Are you saying that Washington does not want a new trouble spot in the Middle East?

- No, of course, it's not in Biden's interest. Even defeating Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis (which is doubtful without a ground operation) does nothing for them, the Democrats, except for cost and possible loss of electoral votes, since no victory will look convincing in the eyes of the electorate.

- So neither Britain nor the US had any intention of involving Iran in this conflict?

- Iran will not be drawn in, I think that is their logic. Tehran has abandoned Hamas, it will abandon the Houthis. If that's going to happen, then Hassan Nasrallah is going to have to be very careful.

- Are you saying that Iran is not going to get directly involved?

- There have been close ties between Hamas and Iran for many years, but we have not seen any serious Iranian support since October 7 (the day Hamas attacked Israel). Israel is now destroying Hamas and its supporters, and de facto Iran is just watching. Rhetorical interventions are not going to help.

- So what motivated Hamas's decision to attack Israel?

- I am afraid that the decision was still taken in Gaza without clear support from Tehran.

- Are Lebanon and Syria likely to become epicentres of a new Middle East war?

- Lebanon, or rather Hezbollah, is a headache. On the one hand, it is being cautious and staying out of harm's way (apart from the occasional shelling and flashpoints that keep the army in the north), and on the other, it is not clear what to do with it next. Its military capabilities are a dozen times greater than those of Hamas. The problem is either to tolerate the status quo (which means that border residents will always be under threat of attack, and what state will tolerate such a situation) or to launch a new operation against the group on the territory of a sovereign state. It would be possible to negotiate. But the guys there don't want to talk to the Jewish state. But Hezbollah is not the same as Lebanon as a whole. There is at least a common interest in the offshore gas fields near the border.

- And Syria?

- Assad has many other problems. He does not control all of the country's territory, and the country itself has been weakened by 12 years of civil war.

- Why has the US reduced its dependence on Middle Eastern oil as much as possible?

- Because it increased its production in the 2010s. The same shale revolution that changed the oil and gas market.

- So this fact has nothing to do with undermining the economies of China and Europe, which are extremely dependent on energy resources from the Middle East?

- China's economy and supplies are diversified, and I don't see any point in sinking the EU economy.

- How will the new war in the Middle East end? How long can it last?

- I think there are a couple of things we should look out for in the future. First, how long the US will be willing to bear the costs? Second, the internal stability of Iran. Third, whether the Saudis will actively intervene or take a wait-and-see approach.

- Can the crisis in the Middle East have an impact on the South Caucasus?

- I don't think refugee flows will overwhelm Azerbaijan, but a rise in oil prices could be beneficial. The question is always that crises in oil-exporting partners always benefit the rest of the market. But so far we are talking about limited conflicts. We are not talking about an operation in Iraq or a civil war in Syria.