How Russia is trading lives and billions for minimal gains in Ukraine Bleeding for inches

Despite incurring massive human and material losses, Russian forces managed to seize just 68 square miles of Ukrainian territory in April. This minor gain came at the staggering cost of approximately 36,600 soldiers killed or wounded and the loss of 4,800 vehicles, according to data compiled primarily from Ukrainian military sources.

Ukraine, a country covering 233,000 square miles—19% of which remains under Russian occupation—is witnessing a painfully slow and costly Russian advance. At the current pace, projections suggest it would take Moscow until the year 2256 to occupy the rest of Ukraine, with estimated Russian casualties exceeding 100 million—nearly the size of Russia’s entire population, Forbes argues.

Yet astonishingly, the Russian military hasn’t collapsed under these losses. Instead, it’s replenishing its forces with an eclectic mix of civilian vehicles, ranging from scooters to compact cars and even a bus, while continuing to recruit troops at a pace of 30,000 per month. General Christopher Cavoli, head of U.S. Army forces in Europe, told lawmakers that due to wounded soldiers returning to duty and the ongoing recruitment drive, Russia’s total military presence in Ukraine has grown to 600,000—double the size of its initial 2022 invasion force.

This force expansion is being fuelled by two critical factors: generous enlistment bonuses and a perception among recruits that the war’s end is near. According to Janis Kluge of Germany’s Institute for International and Security Affairs, this belief—combined with lucrative financial incentives—has driven record sign-ups.

But this level of mobilisation comes at a steep price. Russia’s defence budget now consumes 40% of government spending, the highest proportion since the Cold War. For context, the U.S. allocates just 13% of its federal budget to defence. This wartime spending has helped suppress unemployment to 2.4% and stimulated Russia’s defence-industrial base, but it also leaves the economy vulnerable.

Sustaining such financial strain is becoming increasingly difficult. Plunging oil prices and Ukrainian drone strikes have slashed revenues from energy exports, significantly curtailing economic growth. In response, the Kremlin has hiked taxes on both individuals and businesses to keep funding the war machine.

Despite walking a precarious economic and political tightrope, the Kremlin remains resolute. Cavoli warns that Putin has reshaped Russia’s military and economy for prolonged confrontation with the West—signalling a long war not just in Ukraine, but potentially beyond.

By Vugar Khalilov