How serious is the Islamic State threat to Türkiye? IS hits Istanbul after years of plotting

The Islamic State (aka IS or ISIS/ISIL, Daesh) extremist group has recently claimed responsibility for an attack on a church in Istanbul during a religious service, killing one person and injuring another, seven years after its massive terror attack in Türkiye.

On January 28, during a Sunday service, masked assailants stormed the Santa Maria Catholic Church in Sariyer district of Türkiye’s most populated city, and randomly shot at the congregation, killing a 52-year-old man before escaping the scene.

In hot pursuit, the Turkish police captured two men, allegedly IS members, after police carried out raids on 30 locations and detained 47 people. According to Türkiye’s Yeni Safak paper, the shooting was carried out by militants of the so-called Tajik cell Wilayat Khorasan of the IS terrorist group.

On the same day, IS claimed responsibility for the attack, and for the first time used the term "wilayat", meaning "province", which designates Türkiye as a country where IS has an "official" branch. This term suggests that IS may have enough potential in the country to increase the number of attacks shortly. 

Islamic State's Türkiye Province was first announced as an official province in a video message from IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in April 2019. Three months later, a group of IS militants swore allegiance to al-Baghdadi in the name of Wilayat Türkiye, making a direct threat against Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Ankara announced in May 2023 that it had arrested the leader of Wilayat Türkiye, Sahap Varis, accusing him of involvement in multiple domestic plots.

Why IS attacks Türkiye

Türkiye stepped up fighting against IS members across the country last year, which may have prompted IS to accelerate the Istanbul attack. The IS external operations in Syria and Afghanistan had failed to strike Türkiye in the last seven years, and many plots had been disrupted in the country as well.

Turkish Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya said on January 28 that 2,086 IS suspects had been taken into custody in the country since June 2023, and that 529 of them had been arrested. 

In early January, Turkish authorities said that in December 2023, 32 men, who were suspected of links to IS, were detained and 25 of them were arrested in Istanbul for plotting attacks on churches and synagogues in the city. The Turkish Intelligence Agency also nabbed the ISIS ringleader in Syria's Aleppo city, Abdullah al Jundi, who planned attacks against the Turkish forces in the Operation Euphrates Shield, and Olive Branch zones.

In 2013, Türkiye became one of the first countries to declare the IS a terrorist organization. The country has since been attacked by the terror group multiple times, with over 300 people killed and hundreds more injured in at least 10 suicide bombings, seven bomb attacks, and four armed attacks. In response, Türkiye launched anti-terror operations at home and abroad to prevent further attacks.

Türkiye came under attack from the IS at the outset of late 2015 after Ankara allowed the US military to conduct air strikes on terrorist targets in Syria via Türkiye’s Incirlik air base. On January 1, 2017, 39 people were killed and 79 injured in a shooting by IS members at the Reina nightclub in Istanbul.

Between March 2014 and January 2017, IS carried out 20 attacks inside Türkiye, killing 308 people and injuring 1,167. In response, Ankara conducted at least 7,726 operations against IS from 2014 to 2023.

The country had long been one of the main points of passage to Syria for foreigners, trying to join jihadist groups, and faced obstacles in preventing jihadist operatives from crossing its borders from 2012 to 2015. To counter those threats, Türkiye conducted several military operations to clear the border region of the IS fighters, including Operation Euphrates Shield in 2016-2017, Operation Olive Branch in 2018, and Operation Peace Spring in 2019.

“Euphrates Shield” prompted IS leadership to call for attacks against Türkiye in November 2016. 

After Türkiye built a border wall and obtained intelligence on these individuals from other governments, it detained 19,945 individuals, and arrested 5,507 between 2016 and 2023. The Turkish local authorities have also deported more than 9,000 foreigners from 102 countries since 2011, on charges of being linked to IS and living in Türkiye illegally.

Rise of IS threat

The Istanbul attack came after IS's leadership message via its Telegram channels in early January, for the targeting of “Jews and Christians everywhere".

In a new audio message released online, the Islamic State's spokesman, Abu Hudhayfah al-Ansari, announced a new global campaign to the world, entitled “Kill Them Wherever You Find Them”. As of the time of publishing, the IS has claimed over 100 operations as part of this campaign, around the world including Iraq, Syria, Mali, Nigeria, the Congo, Mozambique, Afghanistan, and the Philippines.

The Islamic State recently claimed responsibility for a dual suicide bombing in Iran's Kerman on January 3, where at least 93 people were killed and 280 were injured during an event to mark the fourth anniversary of the US killing of top Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani. According to the IS, those blasts kicked off this campaign, which is in part “revenge” for Iran’s actions vis-a-vis the Gaza war. 

In late October, the group called on Muslims to target Jewish people, places of worship, Jewish and Western embassies all over the world, especially "Jewish neighbourhoods in the US and Europe" because of their "protection" of Israel in the Israeli-Gaza war.

In response to the Quran burning at a protest in Sweden in June 2023, IS leaders ordered the group’s affiliates to attack the Swedish and Dutch consulates-general in Istanbul, and Christian and Jewish houses of worship.

Many Western countries, including the US, the UK, the Netherlands, and Germany, shut down their consulates in Istanbul in response to the threat. The Turkish special services arrested 15 suspected IS members after finding out about the plot.