IAEA chief warns of "very fragile" global security amid growing nuclear arms race

The head of the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog has issued a stark warning that rising global instability could trigger a new nuclear arms race, with potentially up to 20 countries pursuing atomic weapons.

Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said increasing geopolitical tensions and weakening trust in global security frameworks risk undermining decades of non-proliferation efforts, the Telegraph reports.

He warned that discussions in several countries about acquiring nuclear weapons could signal a dangerous shift.

“There’s been a few important countries ... in Europe, in Asia Minor, in the Far East that have mentioned [it] and where a public discussion is taking place about this possibility,” Grossi said.
“There is talk about ‘friendly proliferation’. There are all these things which fill me with concern because I believe that a world with 20 nuclear weapon states or more would be extremely dangerous.”

Grossi described the current global climate as one of “fragmentation, conflict, polarisation,” adding that such conditions could push nations to reconsider their security strategies.

“At some point, we are going to see a crack in the system. And then we’ll have a domino [effect]. It is a very, very fragile position.”

The warnings come amid growing debate within countries such as Poland, South Korea, and Japan over whether to develop independent nuclear deterrents.

Under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), 191 countries have committed not to acquire nuclear weapons, while five recognised nuclear-weapon states — the United States, United Kingdom, France, Russia, and China — are obligated to pursue disarmament.

However, Grossi cautioned that adherence to the treaty is weakening.

“It’s not the case right now. But I think it’s fair enough that we highlight the need to reinforce and recommit to non-proliferation beacons if you want stability in a world that I think is in need of those.”

Grossi highlighted several areas of concern, including China’s growing nuclear arsenal and North Korea’s rapid weapons development.

“We are seeing something different. What we are seeing is a very steady growth in nuclear arsenal.”

On North Korea, he warned:

“I think it’s fair to say that we see North Korea as a clear expansion. What we see is that the country is moving quite fast in this area… you have a very ambitious ballistic missile programme.”

Turning to the Middle East, Grossi stressed that any nuclear agreement between the United States and Iran would lack credibility without IAEA oversight.

“Without verification, any agreement is no agreement. It’s an illusion of an agreement, or it’s a promise, which you don’t know whether it will be complied with or not.”

He said the agency remains uniquely positioned to ensure compliance:

“We know Iran very, very well, all the facilities. We are the only ones who could guarantee absolute impartiality in the work.”

Grossi also cautioned about the risks associated with potential military action targeting nuclear facilities:

“There are inherent challenges to such a move… this is a very delicate thing to handle, to manipulate, to move around.”

The IAEA is also continuing investigations in Syria following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government. Inspectors have identified remnants of a suspected undeclared nuclear programme.

Grossi confirmed that some materials may still be missing. 

With roughly 12,000 nuclear warheads worldwide — most held by the United States and Russia — Grossi warned that further proliferation would significantly heighten global risks.

He reiterated that preventing the spread of nuclear weapons must remain a priority:

“I think a world with less nuclear weapons is better than a world with more.”

By Sabina Mammadli