Impeachment may be final chapter of Macron's presidency Situation in France rapidly escalating

The situation in France is rapidly escalating: the country is engulfed in internal political conflicts, with many French citizens placing the blame on President Emmanuel Macron.

According to a survey conducted by BFMTV, nearly half of the French population supports the proposal from the La France Insoumise party calling for President Macron's resignation. Forty-nine per cent of respondents supported this proposal. Not only ordinary citizens but also some politicians are calling for political actions against Macron. For instance, Florian Philippot, leader of the Patriots party, is demanding impeachment proceedings in connection with the arrest of Telegram founder Pavel Durov.

Alongside political instability, France is also grappling with social and migration crises. Some European analysts are even predicting the possibility of civil unrest due to the deepening societal divisions. As a result, several French politicians believe that impeachment is the best solution to address the current crisis. What are the real chances that an impending impeachment could end Macron's political career and pave the way for a more suitable leader?

Caliber.Az has posed this question to international political analysts.

Russian expert on French affairs, Ph.D. in History, and Associate Professor at the Institute of Social Sciences at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RPANEPA) Igor Ignatchenko has said that, Macron is currently focused on simply surviving and staying afloat until the end of his presidential term. Therefore, in his view, Macron remains relatively resilient to various political challenges, including impeachment—he has a survival strategy for such a hard day. This strategy involves making further concessions to various factions. Ignatchenko said that a political conflict is currently escalating in France, fueled by Macron's stubbornness and ill-considered actions. 

For instance, he is steadfastly refusing to appoint a candidate from the left-wing coalition, the "New Popular Front," which won the parliamentary elections in France, as the head of government. "Candidate Lucie Castets works at the Paris City Hall and is a relatively moderate politician who could align with Macron's agenda. However, the French president is blocking her nomination. We are witnessing such illogical moves by Macron, who stubbornly resists and ignores obvious solutions—this approach certainly cannot be described as farsighted," the expert said. In this context, the situation with Durov, which has escalated into an international scandal due to Macron's ill-considered actions, has dealt a significant blow to France's political standing. 

The fact that Elon Musk has demanded that Macron provide more substantial grounds for Durov's detention—beyond what is currently available—is just the beginning. In reality, the UAE is threatening to cancel its purchase of French Rafale fighter jets due to Durov's detention. "There is such a situation," noted the political analyst. The expert said that the French political elite has significantly deteriorated over the past few decades, and Macron's role is a clear manifestation of these trends. "We see that Macron is trying to project charisma, but in reality, it often turns into a farce. However, regarding the outcome of the impeachment itself, despite the gravity of Macron's situation, I believe he will survive the impeachment.

The political forces represented in the French parliament are too diverse. Macron is heavily relying on this, but it doesn't change the fact that France, under Macron's presidency, is mired in profound chaos, including in terms of government formation. Even Macron himself has no clear idea of how the situation will evolve," Ignatchenko noted.

Israeli journalist and head of the International Relations Commission of the Israel Journalists Union Rostislav Goltzman believes that France is experiencing a severe constitutional crisis not seen in the country for a long time. "France is essentially a republic with a hybrid system combining presidential and parliamentary formats, where each operates and is elected independently of the other. This creates a complex and problematic state mechanism," he said. "One would think that after years of his presidency, Macron would have learned something, but in reality, he made a classic mistake of political novices, overplaying his hand. Macron's greatest fear was the success of Marine Le Pen's National Rally. To prevent this, he struck a deal with the left-wing coalition, the 'New Popular Front,' conceding seats in several French regions to them," he noted. 

Goltzman noted that as a result, Macron's bloc outpaced Le Pen's party and secured second place. However, when it came time to form a coalition government, Macron's recent ally issued an ultimatum, insisting that the nomination for the new prime minister be determined by them. The expert noted that however, the "New Popular Front" led by Mélenchon is a coalition of left-wing radical groups, including some highly controversial ones, such as anti-Semitic factions. It is clear that no force in the French parliament will support such a proposal. This represents one of Macron's political blunders—by blocking Le Pen's success, he has plunged France into a political crisis.

“To address the current situation, Macron is now forced to negotiate with the very figure he detests, Le Pen, and other politicians. This is an attempt to mitigate the threat posed by the leader of the New Popular Front coalition. Meanwhile, Mélenchon and his allies are unwilling to wait or make concessions, threatening to take to the streets with thousands of supporters, claiming that they represent three-quarters of the population,” Goltzman said. 

The expert said that whether this is entirely accurate or not, it is clear that the "New Popular Front" controls the most active segment of French society. This is the political predicament Macron has created for himself. The incident with Durov is another example of Macron's clumsiness, reflecting his complete misalignment with the current political landscape.

“Thus, the impending impeachment is merely a consequence of Macron's shortsightedness. He has trapped himself, and this seems to be the most serious test of his presidency. It’s time to grab some popcorn and wait. I believe that the upcoming impeachment could be the final chapter of his presidential journey," Goltzman added.