Is Europe on brink of civil conflict? Opinion by NYT columnist

In a recent opinion piece, prominent US columnist Ross Douthat dismissed fears that the US is on the brink of a genuine civil war, a concern often raised by liberals worried about the rise of populism or Trumpism. 

They noted that while these warnings dominate American debates, the political landscape in Europe tells a different story—where conservatives in France and Britain are more likely to express anxiety about potential civil conflicts.

The expert highlighted longstanding warnings from French right-wing figures and military officials about tensions arising from the country’s challenges in integrating Muslim immigrants. They referenced Michel Houellebecq’s novel Submission, which imagines such conflict being avoided through the elite’s conversion to Islam. In Britain, concerns have been fueled by military historian David Betz and political strategist Dominic Cummings, who warn of increasing fears among elites about violence from both nativists and radicalised immigrants.

The columnist pointed out several reasons to doubt the outbreak of civil war in the US, including the lack of clear geographic divisions, reduced racial polarisation during the Trump era, and the country’s relative wealth and stability, which create incentives for maintaining the political system. They noted that violence tends to be isolated incidents rather than organised communal action.

While Europe faces similar tensions, the expert said ethnic and religious divisions are often more pronounced there, with immigrant communities in cities like Paris and Marseilles showing stronger cultural separatism and more frequent unrest than comparable US cities.

They also observed that European elites have more effectively kept populists out of power but at the cost of limiting free speech and alienating working-class whites and immigrants alike, increasing the risk of various types of political violence. Slower economic growth and concentrated pockets of discontent further heighten instability in parts of Europe.

Contrary to the progressive view that America is uniquely fractured, the expert argued that Europe’s challenges are often deeper, and efforts to suppress populism might accelerate liberal democracy’s decline.

Despite these tensions, the expert agreed with British writer Aris Roussinos, emphasising that future scenarios are more likely to involve violent disorder than full governmental collapse or civil war. They urged caution in using the term “civil war,” warning it risks exaggerating unrest that large, diverse societies frequently endure. Reflecting on history, they noted America’s turbulent 1960s and France’s history of protests do not equate to civil war, and predicted a future of shared struggle rather than sectional armed conflict.

By Naila Huseynova