ISW: Russia likely continuing mobilisation efforts

The US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) claimed in its recent report that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is likely continuing mobilization efforts covertly under the guise of forming volunteer units as of November 3.

Ukrainian General Staff Deputy Chief Oleksiy Hromov reported on November 3 that Russian officials are continuing covert mobilization despite the announced end of partial mobilization efforts, according to ISW. Russian sources reported that Russian officials in the Republic of Karelia and the Republic of Kabardino-Balkaria are still issuing mobilization summonses. Hromov reported that Russian military recruitment centres received an order to continue recruiting volunteers for contract service.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that volunteers can be men with expunged criminal records as well as men of any age and any health condition despite official disabled status. Russian military officials will likely continue mobilization efforts covertly in the short term and pursue crypto-mobilization efforts like the formation of volunteer units in the long term. The continuation of mobilization efforts and the pursuit of crypto mobilization will likely reduce the efficacy of the fall 2022 conscription cycle in the Russian Federation.