ISW: Russia using highly-trained “Wagner” forces to attack Ukraine’s Avdiivka

The Russian military leadership is likely to have deployed highly-trained Wagner forces in the offensive on Ukraine’s Avdiivka city.

Ukrainian Tavriisk Defence Forces Spokesperson Colonel Oleksiy Dmytrashkivyskyi stated on March 25 that Ukrainian intelligence forecasts that Wagner may appear in the Avdiivka direction, Caliber.Az reports, citing the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

A Russian VK (VKontakte – social network) user posted an obituary on March 26 announcing the death of Wagner Group fighter Yevgeny Malgotin in Avdiivka on March 20.

The obituary claims that Malgotin had prior military experience and fought with the 2nd Russian Volunteer Detachment of the Army of Republika Sprska (commonly referred to as the Bosnian Serb Army) in 1992.

“Malgotin appears to have been a seasoned fighter and likely represents the higher calibre of fighter that comprises Wagner’s special operations forces. While Wagner has heavily committed a majority convict-based force to operations near Bakhmut, there is likely a contingent of higher-quality operators at various locations in Ukraine,” the ISW analysts say.

According to them, Russian military leadership may have decided to deploy certain Wagner elements to the Avdiivka area in recent weeks to support exhausted and lower-quality Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) elements in their efforts to take the settlement.

“If such Wagner fighters have been fighting near Avdiivka, their involvement may help explain the limited tactical gains made in the area over the past week,” they added.  

Key takeaways

Rumours about the dismissal of Russian Eastern Group of Forces (Eastern Military District) Commander Colonel General Rustam Muradov on March 27 generated a muted and cynical response in the Russian information space.

Russian military bloggers also had a muted response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s March 25 announcement to deploy tactical nukes to Belarus, underscoring that Putin’s messaging is aimed at Western rather than domestic Russian audiences.

Russian military leadership likely committed limited higher-quality Wagner Group elements to the offensive on Avdiivka, potentially to reinforce recent limited tactical successes in the area.

Russian forces made marginal gains around Svatove and Russian forces continue ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.

Russian forces continued ground attacks in and around Bakhmut and made gains within Bakhmut.

Russian forces continued ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.

Russia appears to be increasingly deploying elements of conventional formations in a piecemeal fashion along the entire frontline, including in southern Ukraine.

Russian authorities continue forming new volunteer battalions subordinate to irregular formations.

Ukrainian partisans conducted an improvised explosive device (IED) attack against an occupation law enforcement officer in Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast.