ISW: Russia withdraws part of Black Sea Fleet from Crimea to minimise losses

The Russian Black Sea Fleet is attempting to mitigate complications with logistical support in occupied Crimea by shifting resources to mainland Russia. 

“Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Natalia Humenyuk reported on June 5 that Russian forces are transferring the Black Sea Fleet’s logistics centres from Sevastopol, occupied Crimea, to Novorossiysk, Krasnodar Krai [Territory],” Caliber.Az reports, citing the Institute for the Study of War [ISW].

Humenyuk stated that Russian forces are moving the logistics centres because of widespread logistical and ammunition provision issues in occupied Crimea.

Russian amphibious ships are continuing to manoeuvre in the Black Sea and enter Sevastopol, but the overall centre of gravity of the Black Sea Fleet appears to be shifting towards Novorossiysk. Recent strikes on Russian concentration areas, logistics hubs, and transportation assets in southern Ukraine may be causing increased anxiety over the security of the Black Sea Fleet, and the move to Krasnodar Territory is likely in part reflective of this fact, ISW reports, citing Humenyuk.

Key Takeaways

Russian and Ukrainian officials are signalling the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Ukrainian forces conducted limited successful offensives north and southwest of Bakhmut.

The pro-Ukrainian all-Russian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) claimed that it continues to operate in a Russian border settlement in Belgorod Oblast as of June 5.

Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov claimed that Chechen forces are ready to defend against raids in Belgorod Oblast, likely partially in order to keep his forces out of combat in Ukraine.

The Russian Black Sea Fleet is attempting to mitigate complications with logistical support in occupied Crimea by shifting resources to mainland Russia.

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is continuing efforts to exacerbate the divide between the Wagner Group and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).

Russian military bloggers responded to the video of Lieutenant Colonel Venevitin with concern, indicating that several prominent pro-war voices are becoming increasingly concerned over the ramifications of the Wagner-MoD divide.

Russian forces reportedly conducted unsuccessful reconnaissance-in-force operations northeast of Kharkiv City and continued limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line.

Russian forces continued limited offensive operations on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.

Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks in western Donetsk and eastern Zaporizhya oblasts and made further limited tactical gains.

Ukrainian forces continue to target rear Russian positions throughout southern Ukraine.

Iran has allegedly signed contracts with Russia for about $1.74 million in ammunition for Russia to use in Ukraine.

Ukrainian sources and Belarusian sources indicated that Belarus has been involved in the forced deportation of Ukrainian children.