ISW: Ukraine strikes on Russian refineries worsen gasoline shortages, inflation

Ukraine’s continued campaign targeting Russian oil refineries is intensifying gasoline shortages across Russia, raising concerns over inflation and broader economic instability, according to the Institute for the Study of War.

On August 28, the Ukrainian General Staff reported that the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) and Special Operations Forces (SOF) carried out a drone strike on the Kuibyshev Oil Refinery in Samara Oblast.

The refinery, which produces gasoline, diesel, fuel oils, and solvents, has an annual processing capacity of seven million tons.

The same day, Ukrainian forces, including the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) and Unmanned Systems Forces (USF), targeted the Afipsky Oil Refinery in Neftekachka, Krasnodar Krai, just south of Krasnodar city.

Afipsky, with a production capacity of 6.25 million tons per year, plays a crucial role in supplying fuel to the Russian military. Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko of Ukraine’s Centre for Combatting Disinformation described both facilities as “key to Russia’s war machine.”

In response to mounting domestic shortages, the Russian government announced on August 27 that it would extend its ban on gasoline exports. The restriction, initially set to expire on August 31, will now continue until September 30 for gasoline producers and October 31 for non-producers.

Russia has struggled to meet domestic demand even before the latest Ukrainian strikes, and intermittent export bans since 2022 have already contributed to supply pressures.

Analysts warn that the recent attacks are likely to drive up fuel prices across Russia and its occupied territories, increasing costs for consumers and businesses alike. The resulting rise in inflation could deepen macroeconomic instability, with wider effects across the Russian economy.

By Aghakazim Guliyev