Kazakh expert: Armenia should critically evaluate its mediocre capabilities Caiber.Az conversation with Arman Shurayev

Caliber.Az had an interview with Arman Shurayev, Kazakhstani political scientist and public figure.

- What do you think of the recent visit of the Azerbaijani head of state to Kazakhstan? What is its significance for our countries?

- The visit of President Ilham Aliyev to Kazakhstan, in my opinion, is further proof of the strengthening of ties between the Turkic-speaking states and the trans-Caspian cooperation in general, especially in the light of the aggressive rhetoric and actions of Iran on the border with Azerbaijan. I believe the visit showed not only Iran but also Russia, that Azerbaijan has close allies in the Caspian Sea. Taking into consideration that last year our head of state paid an official visit to Baku, I would consider Ilham Aliyev's return visit to Astana as a confirmation that the idea of creating the Great Turan is viable. Our countries demonstrate a brotherly relationship, the level of trade has already exceeded $500 million and most probably it will grow at an exponential rate.

On the other hand, due to the changes in the geopolitical situation in the world, Kazakhstan is forced to diversify the routes of its oil supplies to the world markets, bypassing Russia. As far as all our logistics are linked with the Caspian Pipeline Consortium and the Russian seaport of Novorossiysk, Azerbaijan could become one of the main alternative hubs for supplies of Kazakhstan energy resources to the world markets.

- Don't you also think our cooperation in the defence industry is particularly important?

- Undoubtedly, cooperation in the defence industry is extremely important for Kazakhstan, especially given Azerbaijan's vast experience in waging war in accordance with the realities. Kazakhstan needs a professional high-class military, so we expect to learn from Azerbaijan and Türkiye, which have actually faced real aggression and military proxy actions.

- I would like to hear what Kazakh society thinks about the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict and Armenia's aggressive policy on Karabakh.

- As far as the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict is concerned, Kazakh society wholeheartedly supports Azerbaijan's position and its territorial integrity. Armenia's aggressive policy towards your country is absolutely obvious. And this is also indicated by the rhetoric of the Armenian leadership on the withdrawal from the CSTO, as the majority of member countries of the military bloc were on the side of Azerbaijan and did not support Armenia. Kazakhstan, in its turn, proves in practice its commitment to the full return of Azerbaijani ancestral lands and perceives Azerbaijan's victory in the Second Karabakh War in 2020 as a triumph of justice. We clearly believe that Karabakh has been and will forever be an integral part of fraternal Azerbaijan.

- What do you think is the likelihood of normalisation of relations between Baku and Yerevan, given Armenia's hostile policy, and will the sides be able to conclude a peace agreement in the foreseeable future?

- Aggressive Armenian policies are primarily designed for domestic audiences, as for Pashinyan signing a peace agreement with Azerbaijan is tantamount to political death. Therefore, I regard the chances of such a document being concluded as very low. At the same time, the reality is that Armenia's main ally and partner, the Russian Federation, is currently in a difficult situation because of the war in Ukraine. Consequently, the Armenian side must critically evaluate its mediocre capabilities and understand that without concluding peace with Baku it could, in addition to losing Karabakh, also lose other territories which it has traditionally considered Armenian.

- Do you consider the level of threats to the Central Asian countries, in particular Kazakhstan, due to the current geopolitical turbulence to be high enough?

- I assess the level of threats to the Central Asian countries and to Kazakhstan as very high. First, if Russia loses the war in Ukraine, it is possible that Kazakhstan will be seen as an easy target to satisfy some of Moscow's ambitions. Secondly, there is a growing threat from Afghanistan because of the Taliban. Therefore, in the face of growing threats, Kazakhstan clearly needs allies, and I see no other alternative but Turkic-speaking countries.