Kyiv faces growing pressure as energy crisis hits the war effort

The energy shock triggered by US-Israeli strikes on Iran is beginning to affect Ukraine’s fuel supply and, by extension, its military operations, according to accounts from soldiers and analysts.

Two Ukrainian servicemen told Politico that rising fuel prices are already constraining the availability of diesel for combat vehicles, including tanks, artillery systems, and armored personnel carriers.

“The fuel prices are terrible,” said one senior Ukrainian soldier, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk to the media. “Even in the armed forces we are very limited in fuel right now.”

Another soldier described how fuel distribution is being prioritized for frontline units engaged in heavy fighting against Russian forces in eastern Ukraine, particularly in the Donbas region.

“[We’re] not on the front,” he said. “So we aren’t a priority ... our tanks and other shit aren’t moving around a lot so there’s less of a priority to send us diesel than say other units.”

Both soldiers said that fuel rationing has been introduced, although they stressed the situation is not yet critical. At the same time, civilian fuel prices in Ukraine have surged, adding to inflationary pressure and increasing costs at filling stations for a population already living under daily Russian attacks.

The price shock follows Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy route through which more than 20 percent of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas passes. The disruption has driven oil prices up to as much as $120 per barrel, raising concerns about a potential global recession.

Despite these pressures, Ukraine’s energy ministry insists that supply remains stable. In a written response, a ministry spokesperson said there is “no fuel shortage on the Ukrainian market,” adding: “The Ukrainian government, in collaboration with market participants, continues to diversify supply routes to maintain adequate levels of fuel for the needs of the Armed Forces, industry, and the general public.”

Ukraine’s heavy reliance on imports adds to the vulnerability. In mid-March, the country’s energy minister told lawmakers that around 85 percent of fuel is sourced from abroad, primarily from Europe and the United States.

The ministry emphasized that its top priority is ensuring uninterrupted fuel supply to the armed forces and emergency services, followed by the agricultural sector, with the general population and businesses receiving supplies afterward. Officials reiterated that the “situation remains under control.”

However, analysts warn that the longer the Iran conflict continues, the greater the economic strain on Ukraine. John Helin, founder of the private intelligence organization Black Bird Group, said reliable public data on military fuel reserves is limited, but rising energy costs are likely to weigh on Ukraine’s budget.

“Public information is limited, and more precise information is, naturally, not available,” Helin said, adding that prolonged high energy prices would increasingly affect Ukraine’s finances.

Ukraine is already facing mounting fiscal pressure from the war and political tensions with some European partners. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been in a dispute with Hungary and Slovakia over the damaged Druzhba pipeline, which previously transported Russian oil through Ukraine.

Until repairs are completed, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has pledged to continue blocking a €90 billion European Union loan intended to support Ukraine’s financial and military needs. Allegations that Hungary’s foreign minister leaked information to Russia during an EU ministerial meeting have further unsettled the bloc.

Reflecting frustration on the ground, one Ukrainian soldier said it feels as though Orbán “is doing his best to let us run out of [money].”

Meanwhile, the broader geopolitical environment is shifting. Russia is benefiting from higher global oil prices, while US President Donald Trump has introduced temporary sanctions relief for both Russia and Iran in an effort to stabilize global markets.

Helin warned that this dynamic could have deeper implications.

“The situation is already creating space for a renewed discussion in parts of the West about easing pressure on Russia,” he said. “Should this discourse gain further traction, it could be more damaging to Ukraine's war effort than energy prices alone.”

By Tamilla Hasanova