Lebanese sentiment divided as Israel-Hezbollah conflict risks escalation

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently stated that as Israeli military operations in Gaza wind down, attention will shift north to Hezbollah, Lebanon's Shiite group. This rivalry traces back to Israel's 1982 invasion of Lebanon and subsequent occupation until 2000, culminating in a full-scale war in 2006.

Recent years have seen increased cross-border skirmishes between Israel and Hezbollah, particularly escalating after Hamas's attack on Israel in October 2023 and subsequent Israeli retaliation in Gaza. Concerns now grow that another major conflict between Israel and Hezbollah could erupt, Caliber.Az reports via foreign media.

Such a conflict would occur amidst Lebanon's severe economic crisis since 2019, leaving Lebanese citizens grappling with profound challenges. A survey by Arab Barometer from February to April 2024, covering urban and rural areas across Lebanon's sectarian communities, underscores widespread frustration. About 80% of Lebanese cite food availability and affordability as critical issues, with 68% reporting periodic inability to afford food in the past month. Compared to other Arab nations, Lebanon records the lowest satisfaction with water, electricity, internet access, and healthcare, with 92% experiencing weekly electricity outages and 65% facing water shortages.

Hope for improvement is bleak, with only 13% believing in positive changes over the next two to three years. Lebanese respondents are notably pessimistic about their economic prospects compared to previous generations, reflecting a nation historically divided along sectarian lines since the 1975-1990 civil war, ending with a fragile peace accord assigning political roles based on sects.

Hezbollah's ascendance over three decades has reshaped Lebanon's power dynamics. Despite being designated a terrorist organization by most Western nations, Hezbollah operates legally as a political party and security force within Lebanon, providing services in areas under its control, effectively functioning as a state within a state. This situation renders the national government and Lebanese Armed Forces unable to counter Hezbollah, potentially dragging Lebanon into conflict with Israel independently.

Arab Barometer's survey indicates Hezbollah's significant influence in Lebanese politics but limited nationwide support. While Hezbollah enjoys strong backing among Lebanon's Shiite population, particularly in the south and east, broader endorsement is minimal. Nonetheless, many Lebanese endorse Hezbollah's stance on Palestinian rights and condemn Israeli actions in Gaza, with non-Shiite support for Hezbollah's regional role rising post-Gaza war.

Trust in Hezbollah varies widely across sects, with 85% of Shiites expressing confidence compared to single-digit percentages among Sunnis, Druze, and Christians. Similarly, Lebanese sentiment towards Hezbollah's regional involvement diverges, with Shiites predominantly viewing it positively compared to other sects. Despite minimal cross-sectarian support for Hezbollah itself, Lebanese of all sects overwhelmingly criticize Israel's actions in Gaza, describing them as genocide and terrorism, contrasting with minimal condemnation of Hezbollah's attacks on Northern Israel.

Hezbollah's ties to Iran influence Lebanese perceptions of Iran, with 36% viewing Iran favourably, predominantly among Shiites. This sentiment shift includes increased favourable views among non-Shiite sects, alongside declining favorability towards the United States, dropping to 27% in 2024 from 42% in 2022.

Lebanese views on external aid underscore domestic disillusionment with their government and religious leaders, with pervasive mistrust in political and religious institutions. Notably, the Lebanese Armed Forces stand out as a credible institution, trusted by 85% of respondents, reflecting its diverse sectarian composition and significant societal role.

As Israel and Hezbollah contemplate escalating conflict, they confront Lebanon's precarious state, where widespread anti-Israel sentiments coexist with varied opinions on Hezbollah. A larger Israeli offensive could intensify Lebanon's challenges, potentially boosting Hezbollah's support among Lebanese viewing it as a defender against external aggression. However, Hezbollah risks losing recent gains if perceived as responsible for widening the conflict into Lebanon, particularly among non-Shiite communities already critical of its influence.

In conclusion, Lebanese public sentiment reflects deep divisions over Hezbollah's role and underscores broader discontent with domestic governance and regional dynamics. Any escalation involving Hezbollah and Israel would exacerbate Lebanon's existing crises, potentially reshaping domestic alliances amidst enduring anti-Israel sentiments.