"Macron's team trying to appease Armenian diaspora over loss of Karabakh" Russian pundit on Сaliber.Az

Caliber.Az presents an interview with the dean of the Faculty of Sociology and Political Science of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, political scientist Alexander Shatilov.

- Alexander Borisovich, how do you assess Yerevan’s ratification of the Rome Statute of the ICC? What will Moscow's response be?

- Armenia’s ratification of the Rome Statute is another unfriendly act towards Russia, which is in a tough confrontation with this dubious international legal authority. At the same time, one should not expect any drastic steps from Moscow towards Yerevan. As the events of recent months show, the Russian elite was almost relieved by both Azerbaijan’s reintegration of Karabakh and Nikol Pashinyan’s anti-Russian “coming out”. Previously, the Russian Federation had to bear responsibility for Armenia and the self-proclaimed entity in an absolutely hopeless manner, but now Russian diplomacy can breathe easy.

- Has the likelihood of Armenia leaving the Eurasian integration structures increased?

- I do not exclude that, under pressure from the West, Armenia will begin a gradual withdrawal from the CSTO and the EAEU, although taking into account certain interests (primarily economic), this process will drag on for several years. Unless, of course, a tough command comes from Washington, although this is unlikely - it is beneficial for the Americans to have their own “agent of influence” in pro-Russian integration structures.

- How would you comment on the European Parliament’s call for sanctions against Azerbaijan?

- The European Commission and the European Parliament can call for doing anything, however, firstly, within the EU itself there is no agreement even on the “Ukrainian issue”, and even more so it is unlikely that consensus will be reached on sanctions against Azerbaijan.

Secondly, the EU does not make such fundamental decisions without the consent of the United States, and the Americans are satisfied with the current level of relations with Baku.

Thirdly, it seems that in connection with the extraordinary events in the Middle East, the attention of European “human rights activists” will turn there.

- What plans does Paris have in the South Caucasus?

- It seems to me that Paris, having previously lost on all fronts (Africa, Ukraine), is simply trying to imitate activity in the South Caucasus. At the same time, Macron’s team, through loud statements and various kinds of “peacekeeping initiatives,” seeks to relieve the stress of the loss of Karabakh among the influential Armenian diaspora in France.

- How do you assess the arrest of the former leaders of the puppet regime in Karabakh?

- The arrest of the separatist leaders is a great success for Azerbaijan. However, paradoxically, it is also a great success for Pashinyan, who feared that in case of retreat to Armenia, the Karabakh clan would muddy the waters and raise the people to protests. Now this problem does not exist.

- I would like to hear your forecast for the near future about the processes in the South Caucasus?

- It seems to me that due to the sharp aggravation of the situation in the Middle East, the West’s attention will switch mainly to the Arab-Israeli conflict, so Azerbaijan will have a chance to build on its success. Russia will prioritize the Ukrainian track, and its real activity in the South Caucasus will be minimal.

I think that in 2025 Moscow is unlikely to initiate the extension of the term of stay of Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh, moreover, I do not rule out the early withdrawal of this peacekeeping mission.