Media: France’s fight to double defence spending hits economic wall

France’s ambitious plans to boost its military spending face significant challenges amid soaring national debt and fiscal constraints, raising concerns about the future capability of one of Europe’s strongest armed forces.

President Emmanuel Macron has called for the annual defence budget to rise to between 3 and 3.5 per cent of GDP by 2030, up from roughly 2 per cent currently. This would effectively double defence spending to around €100 billion annually, aligning France with NATO’s anticipated new targets aimed at encouraging European allies to increase security investments, Caliber.Az reports, citing foreign media.

However, lawmakers and analysts question whether France can realistically meet these goals. The country’s debt-to-GDP ratio reached 113 per cent last year—second only to Greece and Italy in Europe—while the budget deficit stood at 5.8 per cent of GDP, far exceeding the EU’s 3 per cent limit.

“Given our worse starting point on debt, we’ll have to make more of an effort than other countries,” said Clément Beaune, former minister and Macron ally. “In France, and this is probably different than elsewhere, we also cannot go back on our deficit reduction goals, nor can we raise taxes since they are already very high.” Beaune advocates for a combination of spending cuts, economic reforms, and European joint borrowing, though the latter lacks consensus among EU members.

Macron’s defence plans aim to reverse decades of cuts and sustain nuclear capabilities, aircraft carriers, fighter jets, and a 200,000-strong force. Annual defence spending excluding pensions is projected to rise from €36 billion in 2019 to €67.4 billion in 2030. Yet experts warn that inflation and rising costs of new weapons may erode these gains, resulting in fewer fighter jets and tanks despite increased budgets.

Dominique de Legge, a conservative senator, said, “If France wants to remain a military leader in Europe then we have to set an example with our actions, not just our words.” A recent report from his office highlighted financial strains caused by funding for Ukraine and troop deployments, leading to an €8 billion delay in military payments.

Critics argue that France’s comprehensive military strategy risks producing a “bonsai army”—a force that is too small to sustain prolonged conflict. Élie Tenenbaum of the Ifri think-tank noted, “We tend to think of ourselves as the only serious players, but that’s not really true.”

Despite the hurdles, French officials insist scaling back planned increases is “not at all on the table.” Macron has urged Europe to deepen defence cooperation through joint borrowing and weapons programs. However, France’s reluctance to invoke the EU’s deficit suspension, fearing bond market repercussions, may hinder rapid spending increases.

With borrowing costs already surpassing the defence budget—€59 billion last year and rising—France faces a delicate balancing act between fiscal responsibility and maintaining its status as a top European military power.

By Vafa Guliyeva