Ukraine's disinformation center: Russia acknowledges decline in oil, gas revenues

Russia’s Ministry of Finance has reportedly projected a sustained decline in oil and gas revenues, marking the end of a period when these exports generated exceptionally high profits, according to Ukraine’s Centre for Countering Disinformation.

The Centre reported that official Russian budget forecasts indicate oil and gas revenues will continue to decrease in both the medium and long term. By 2026, their share in the federal budget is expected to fall to about 23 per cent, compared with more than 50 per cent prior to 2022, Caliber.Az reports. 

According to the report, Russian authorities have publicly explained the projected decline by citing the gradual depletion of low-cost hydrocarbon reserves, without linking the trend directly to the war in Ukraine. The Centre noted, however, that international sanctions and changes in export markets following the conflict have also affected revenue levels.

The report added that in 2025 Russia has been selling oil and gas at prices close to production costs, and in some cases below them, in order to sustain export volumes. With access to Western markets significantly reduced, exports have been redirected mainly to Asian markets, particularly India and China, where buyers have sought substantial discounts.

The Centre concluded that ongoing geopolitical tensions and the restructuring of export markets are having a significant impact on Russia’s energy revenues and budget structure.

By Sabina Mammadli