Cuba faces looming fuel crisis due to US blockade as oil supplies dry up

Cuba has enough oil to last only 15 to 20 days at current levels of demand and domestic production, according to data company Kpler, raising fears of sharp fuel rationing and worsening power outages across the island.

The warning comes after Mexico, Cuba’s sole remaining supplier, appeared to cancel a planned shipment, while the United States moved to block deliveries from Venezuela. Much of the country is already experiencing near-daily blackouts, The Financial Times reveals. 

While oil inventories have fallen lower at times in recent years, the situation has become more acute after US President Donald Trump vowed to cut off oil supplies to the communist-run island, saying this week that the Cuban regime was “very close to failing”.

“They have a major crisis on their hands” if new deliveries do not arrive in the coming weeks, said Jorge Piñón, an oil expert at the University of Texas.

According to consultancy Kpler, Cuba has received just 84,900 barrels of oil this year, all from a single Mexican shipment on January 9. That amounts to just over 3,000 barrels per day (b/d), sharply down from an average of 37,000 b/d from all suppliers in 2025.

“We can say that Cuba can run for 15 to 20 days” if the January shipment is combined with an estimated 460,000 barrels held in inventories at the start of the year, said Victoria Grabenwöger, crude research analyst at Kpler.

On January 11, two days after the last Mexican delivery and a week after the US capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, Trump pledged that “no more oil” would be going to Havana.

Mexico was Cuba’s largest oil supplier last year but has come under intense pressure from Washington. Asked about a Bloomberg report suggesting a shipment planned for this month had been shelved, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum described the decision as a “sovereign decision”.

She later denied that exports had stopped entirely, saying oil shipments to Cuba were carried out through contracts with state oil company Pemex or as humanitarian aid.

Analysts believe Cuba has been receiving oil at heavily discounted rates or free of charge.

“Cuba relied a lot on Venezuela. If now all it has is Mexico and Mexico is under pressure from the US and can’t export, Cuba has a big, big problem,” said Gonzalo Monroy, an energy consultant in Mexico City.

Kpler also reports that Cuba is running short of fuel oil, which is essential for electricity generation. By mid-2025, Venezuela had become the island’s only supplier, but the last fuel oil cargo arrived in November and none have followed since, Grabenwöger said.

The Cuban government has previously resold some Venezuelan crude to generate hard currency, according to US officials.

Many analysts warn that Cuba’s already struggling economy — hit by declining tourism and sugar production — could collapse without reliable oil supplies.

“For the Cuban regime, the island’s economic crisis is so severe as to be potentially existential,” said Nicholas Watson at consultancy Teneo.

Venezuela exported an average of almost 46,500 b/d of oil to Cuba in December, but shipments have dropped to zero since the capture of Maduro by US troops on January 3, Kpler data shows.

Other past suppliers, including Russia and Algeria, have delivered oil only sporadically. Russia’s most recent shipment was in October, while Algeria last supplied oil in February 2025.

Sheinbaum faces a delicate political balancing act, with a major free-trade pact with the US and Canada due for renegotiation this year. Trump has also repeatedly threatened action against Mexican drug cartels.

Analysts say fears that Mexican crude could be seized under a potential US oil blockade may have contributed to the decision to halt exports.

“I think this weighed very heavily on the decision . . . to avoid a threat which would be an open military provocation between Mexico and the US,” said Ricardo Pascoe Pierce, a former Mexican ambassador to Cuba.

While Sheinbaum has defended Mexico’s long-standing support for Cuba and pledged continued solidarity, she did not say whether shipments would resume. Pemex and Mexico’s energy ministry did not respond to requests for comment.

By Sabina Mammadli