The Spectator: Ukraine on verge of political collapse

Ukraine heads into another harsh winter, confronting pressures that are simultaneously military, political and institutional, raising serious concerns about the resilience of the state as Russia intensifies strikes on energy and transport networks.

Moscow’s drones and missiles have recently penetrated Ukrainian air defences with growing effectiveness, causing region-wide outages and exposing critical electricity interchanges that analysts fear Russia may be saving for deeper winter assaults, Caliber.Az reports, citing The Spectator.

The military situation remains grinding. Russian forces continue incremental advances in Donbas and along the Zaporizhzhia front, while Ukrainian troop desertions have reportedly risen sharply compared with last year. With US funding frozen and Europe struggling to close Kyiv’s financing gap, Ukraine faces the cold season with shrinking resources and rising operational strain.

Yet the most destabilising force may be political. A $100 million corruption scandal linked to infrastructure protection contracts has engulfed figures close to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and eroded public trust.

Opposition parliamentarians say Zelenskyy’s approval has plunged below 20 per cent, reflecting widespread anger over allegations that senior insiders stalled the fortification of energy sites while pursuing kickbacks. Key suspects, including media executive Timur Mindich, fled before raids, prompting accusations that political allies had interfered with investigations.

The government’s relationship with anti-corruption institutions has come under particular scrutiny. Zelenskyy faced heavy domestic and international backlash after attempting to bring the National Anti-Corruption Bureau and its prosecutorial arm under tighter executive control, a move ultimately reversed after public protests. Western governments that helped set up these bodies in 2014 have expressed alarm over attempts to curb their independence.

International confidence has wavered. Italian and Polish leaders have warned that support for Ukraine risks weakening further unless Kyiv demonstrates serious efforts to tackle graft. The scandal has also re-energised nationalist factions that criticise Zelenskyy from the right. Some figures linked to the Azov movement have issued increasingly confrontational rhetoric, raising fears that political fragmentation could complicate wartime governance.

The President, now six and a half years into a five-year term, maintains that elections are unconstitutional under wartime law. Polls suggest that former army chief Valeriy Zaluzhny would be the leading alternative, though he has remained silent about his intentions.

With the threat of deeper blackouts, depleted resources and frayed political unity, Ukraine enters winter reliant on its capacity to maintain cohesion under intense pressure—just as its leadership grapples with the most serious credibility crisis of the war.

By Aghakazim Guliyev