Betting on chaos: Six scenarios shaping 2026 Analyse by POLITICO

“Is the author prepared to bet his own salary on any of the episodes sketched below? Hell no!” POLITICO opens its 2026 forecast with a wink, reminding readers that predicting politics is far trickier than predicting sports. From Vladimir Putin’s manoeuvres in Ukraine to Viktor Orbán’s electoral resilience in Hungary, the piece lays out six scenarios that could define the global landscape this year, complete with speculative odds for the bold.

Trump brokers peace in Ukraine?

The first scenario explores the audacious possibility of Donald Trump brokering an end to the war in Ukraine. Despite talk of Western sanctions and mounting casualties, Vladimir Putin appears unshaken, sticking to his maximalist demands. Yet Trump’s optimism remains intact; as he told Emmanuel Macron after the Alaska summit, “I think he wants to make a deal with me. Do you understand that? As crazy as it sounds.” POLITICO notes the precarious balance: Ukraine’s Zelenskyy faces domestic limits on concessions, while Russia risks internal instability if it abruptly ends a war economy. Still, prolonged conflict benefits Putin strategically, straining Europe and keeping the West distracted—a calculated leverage point as he watches Xi Jinping eye Taiwan. Odds for a Trump-mediated peace: 4/1.

Bond market flexes its muscle

On the economic front, the bond market could flex its power in 2026. Rising government debt across the United States, Japan, and Europe risks triggering market turbulence. “The economic reforms needed to really cover increasing debt are lacking, and the capital market sees that,” Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing warns. History shows the consequences: the swift collapse of Liz Truss’s premiership in Britain underscores the market’s authority. Public finances are under pressure, and governments reluctant to hike taxes or cut spending could face a reckoning. POLITICO gives this scenario 5/1 odds.

Netanyahu defies the odds

In Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu’s political survival remains plausible despite setbacks, including the October 7 Hamas attack and ongoing legal challenges. Nicknamed “Bibi the Magician” for his repeated political comebacks, Netanyahu appears poised to retain influence. A ceasefire in Gaza and Trump’s involvement have bolstered his standing, while opposition efforts remain fragmented. Odds for Netanyahu’s survival: 3/1.

Viktor Orbán eyes another term

Meanwhile, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán eyes another term. He faces his toughest election yet amid inflation and political scandals, but a deeply polarised electorate and populist messaging give him an edge. Analysts suggest a mix of “trickery and campaigning” could tip the balance back in his favour. Odds for Orbán’s reelection: 2/1.

Shadow banking crisis looms

Financial systems face additional risk from the shadow banking sector, where unregulated private credit and AI-driven investments could spark instability. Despite safeguards, a roiled market would ripple through global finance, potentially triggering crises that governments cannot easily contain. Odds for a shadow banking crisis: 3/1.

US midterms: Democrats vs Republicans

Finally, US midterms present contrasting outcomes: Democrats are likely to reclaim the House, aided by historical trends against the incumbent president’s party, while Republicans are well-positioned to retain the Senate. Odds: Democrats seize the House 2/1, Republicans keep the Senate 2/1.

By Jeyhun Aghazada