Media: Zelenskyy may retreat to Lviv as Ukraine faces de facto partition

With mounting military pressure from Russian forces and internal threats from rising ultra-nationalist factions within Ukraine’s military and intelligence apparatus, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy may soon face a stark choice: risk capture or retreat westward, an article by Asia Times suggests.

Speculation is growing that Zelenskyy could relocate Ukraine’s government to the western city of Lviv, establishing a provisional capital in a region considered relatively secure from direct Russian advances, Caliber.Az reports.

Such a move would effectively formalize a partition of Ukraine. Kyiv would likely fall under the control of a pro-Russian government, while the Dnieper River would serve as a de facto dividing line. Under this scenario, Russia could gain control over the eastern and southern regions, potentially including Odesa—a city with deep historical ties to Russia, founded by Catherine the Great.

This configuration mirrors what has been informally dubbed “Kellogg’s Zone 1,” referring to western Ukraine as a buffer area where a Zelenskyy-led administration could persist with European backing. In this case, a multinational European stabilization force could be deployed in the western zone, preserving a symbolic Ukrainian sovereignty while preventing further Russian expansion westward.

There are strategic implications for all parties involved. NATO forces would likely maintain a presence in western Ukraine, averting a complete collapse of Western influence in the country. Meanwhile, Russia’s military gains would go unrecognized by the international community, limiting Moscow's diplomatic leverage.

For the United States and NATO, the scenario could offer a practical off-ramp. Washington would be able to shift its focus to the Indo-Pacific and the growing challenge posed by China, while replenishing arms stockpiles strained by ongoing support for Ukraine. Europe, on the other hand, could claim it stood by Ukraine without the conflict escalating beyond its borders.

While far from ideal, the outcome might provide a face-saving compromise for all sides—albeit one born out of military stalemate rather than diplomatic consensus.

By Khagan Isayev