Middle East flashpoint: Israel, Hezbollah, and Iran on collision course

The recent article published by Forbes examines the looming threat of a major conflict involving Israel, Hezbollah, and Iran, and explores the potential for the war to escalate into a broader international crisis.

The core argument is that a large-scale war between these actors is unavoidable due to the deep-seated hostilities and strategic objectives at play.

The article suggests that a significant confrontation is on the horizon due to ongoing hostilities. Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed militant group based in southern Lebanon, has been actively engaging Israel with missile and drone attacks since October 7. This has led to the evacuation of about 80,000 Israeli residents, which is described as an untenable situation for a sovereign state like Israel.

Iran, through Hezbollah, aims to force a strategic shift in the region. The article posits that Iran wants Hezbollah to cease its attacks in exchange for a ceasefire in Gaza. This would effectively leave Hamas in a strengthened position, potentially allowing it to maintain and even extend its control over Gaza and the West Bank.

The article argues that Israel cannot agree to such a deal, as it would undermine its sovereignty and security. The inability to tolerate a hostile organization dictating terms would likely push Israel into a more aggressive stance, potentially leading to a larger conflict.

Hezbollah is described as a formidable adversary, with a large arsenal of around 150,000 missiles and drones, making it more dangerous than Hamas. The article anticipates that a full-scale Israeli operation against Hezbollah would be costly and could involve significant civilian casualties due to Hezbollah’s missile capability to penetrate Israel’s Iron Dome defence system.

The article warns that Iran might retaliate directly against Israel by launching its own missiles and could accelerate its nuclear weapons program. The hardened and dispersed nature of Iran’s nuclear facilities presents a significant challenge for Israel, which would require U.S. assistance to effectively address both Hezbollah and Iran.

There is speculation about the U.S.’s willingness to support Israel in such a conflict. The article suggests that a lack of decisive U.S. support might embolden Iran and Hezbollah. Additionally, the conflict could have wider repercussions, potentially involving global powers like Russia and China, and could trigger broader international tensions.

The article concludes that despite the dire consequences and potential global ramifications, Israel might find itself compelled to engage in a large-scale war due to the existential threat posed by Hezbollah and Iran. The piece emphasizes that this conflict could reshape regional dynamics and lead to further international discord.