"Moscow may react negatively to EU mission in Armenia" Georgiy Fedorov on Caliber.Az

Caliber.Az presents an interview with Russian political and public figure, member of the Russian Public Chamber, and President of the Centre for Social and Political Studies Aspect Georgiy Fedorov.

- Georgiy Vladimirovich, as you know, an informal meeting of the Turkish, Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders took place in Prague last week. How do you think it will affect the settlement of Armenian-Azerbaijani and Armenian-Turkish relations, and what do you think about normalisation in these two directions in general?

- I believe that the meeting held in Prague will affect some humanitarian contacts. It could become a kind of framework negotiation option to take a step towards normalisation of relations, but there will be no full-fledged normalisation shortly. Because Armenia's army and society are wounded, while Azerbaijan is satisfied. And in general, there are a lot of contradictions between countries.

- What, in your opinion, is the primary reason for France and the United States' recent activity in resolving Armenian-Azerbaijani relations?

- There is a large and influential Armenian Diaspora in the USA and France. Both in business and political circles. As a result, there is a significant interest in Armenian-Azerbaijani relations. And with the electoral cycles approach in France and the United States, their authorities will try to exert more and more influence on Armenian-Azerbaijani relations.

- How will Russia react to the fact of the deployment of the EU mission on the territory of Armenia, which was decided at the quadrilateral meeting in Prague of the Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders, as well as the EU head and France's president?

- It is not very clear yet what kind of international mediators they are. I think some temporary humanitarian and diplomatic missions may be present for monitoring, for example, the OSCE. But no more than that. It should be understood that Russia is now actually in a confrontation with the United States and NATO, so the appearance of representatives of unfriendly countries on Armenia's territory, that is, in the South Caucasus region, may cause a negative reaction from Moscow.

- Do you believe the withdrawal of the 102nd Russian military base from Gyumri is possible, given the intensification of anti-Russian sentiments in Armenia and Yerevan's efforts to change its orientation and move towards the West?

- No, I do not believe in such a turn of events. Russia will not profit from this. This is not beneficial to Armenia. The Russian base has been there for a long time and has played an important role in stabilising the situation.

- That is, you do not think that Armenia is fully orientated to the West?

- There is an internal confrontation in Armenia now, which can be used in the West. But we must understand that the West will never solve the problems in relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. It's not profitable for it. Moreover, Türkiye-Armenia-Azerbaijan is a very serious geopolitical knot, which is very difficult to untie. Therefore, I hope that the final turn of Armenia towards the West will not happen.

- What do you think, or who is behind the protest movement in Iran?

- Internal social contradictions have been growing in Iran for a very long time. And many forces, including the United States and Israel, benefit from the destabilisation of the situation in the Islamic Republic. The political crisis caused by this destabilisation may to some extent affect, among other things, the situation in Türkiye, Azerbaijan and other neighbouring regional countries.