Most Americans expect prolonged US-Iran conflict, poll shows

A large majority of Americans expect the United States’ military conflict with Iran to continue for an extended period, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted as hostilities intensified and President Donald Trump announced a renewed blockade of Iranian shipping in the Gulf.

The three-day survey, completed on Sunday, July 12, found that 79% of respondents believe U.S. military involvement in Iran will “go on for an extended period of time,” up from 65% in late March. By contrast, only 18% said they expect the war to “end pretty quickly in a matter of weeks.”

Public support for the military campaign appears limited. Some 37% of respondents said they approve of U.S. strikes against Iran, which Washington resumed on June 26 in response to what it described as Iranian attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

The poll surveyed 1,019 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of approximately four percentage points.

The findings come as tensions between Washington and Tehran continue to escalate. Trump said on Monday that the United States was reinstating its blockade of Iranian shipping in the Gulf and would be reimbursed 20% tariff on all cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz, after Iran said it had closed the strategic waterway. The two sides have since exchanged further missile and drone attacks.

The renewed hostilities have cast doubt on an interim agreement reached last month to reopen the strait and pause the conflict while negotiations continued for 60 days. Trump has said he considers the ceasefire over, though he has left open the possibility of further talks.

Economic concerns are also rising. Sixty per cent of respondents said they expect gasoline prices to increase over the next year as a result of the conflict, while half said the war has not been worth its costs.

Trump’s approval rating has remained near the lowest levels of his political career since the conflict began. Republican strategists warn that rising living costs have offset the political gains from his tax cuts.

Higher fuel prices and broader cost-of-living pressures pose a potential political risk for Republicans ahead of November’s midterm elections, where the party could lose its majority in the House of Representatives and potentially in the Senate.

By Tamilla Hasanova