Analysts: China erodes Russia’s dominance of Central Asia’s arms market

Russia’s longstanding dominance of the Central Asian arms market is coming under increasing pressure from China, as former Soviet republics diversify their military arsenals and seek to reduce their dependence on Moscow following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

After the Soviet Union collapsed, Russia remained the region’s natural defence supplier. The Central Asian states inherited military equipment and defence-industrial ties from the Soviet era, making Russian weapons a logical choice for their armed forces.

China began developing defence ties with the region gradually in the late 2010s. It has since moved beyond its traditional role as a major trade and investment partner and is increasingly establishing itself as a significant arms supplier, according to an analysis by The Caspian Post.

Beijing is supplying Central Asian states with drones, transport aircraft, armoured vehicles and air-defence systems, while also financing border-security infrastructure and expanding cooperation with regional security agencies.

Turkmenistan, for example, has acquired China’s HQ-9 long-range and HQ-12 medium-range air-defence systems. Uzbekistan has acquired the FD-2000, a system comparable to the HQ-9.

Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan have also shown a willingness to integrate major Chinese platforms into their air forces. Uzbekistan appears to have recently received four Chengdu J-10CE multirole fighters and may have reached an agreement to acquire another 20, Eurasianet reports. Kazakhstan, meanwhile, already operates eight Y-8F-200 military transport aircraft.

The growing Chinese presence in air defence is particularly significant because such systems constitute one of the most sensitive components of a country’s national-security architecture, The Caspian Post notes. By acquiring them, a state effectively incorporates a foreign supplier into the systems protecting its airspace.

The same strategic considerations apply to fighter aircraft. Major weapons purchases also create long-term dependence on suppliers, which can remain responsible for providing missiles, spare parts, engines, software, upgrades and personnel training for years or even decades.

China’s expanding role is notable because Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan remain members of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation alongside Russia. Despite their membership in the Russian-led military alliance, the three countries continue to diversify their defence procurement.

Tajikistan has gone so far as to display Chinese-made military equipment at military parades in Dushanbe, according to defence analysis company Janes. Its Chinese purchases have included armoured personnel carriers, armoured vehicles, self-propelled mortar systems and small arms.

Beijing is also helping finance the construction and development of security facilities along the Tajik-Afghan border. The projects are intended in part to protect Chinese transport corridors and safeguard China’s investments in the economies of Central Asian states.

Chinese unmanned aerial systems have become another important component of the region’s military diversification, particularly as the war in Ukraine has demonstrated the growing importance of drones in modern warfare.

Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan have acquired Chinese Wing Loong and CH-3A combat drones, adding another area in which Chinese defence technology is gaining ground.

The shift comes as Russia’s position in the global arms trade has deteriorated sharply. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Russia’s arms exports fell by 64% in 2021–2025 compared with 2016–2020. Its share of global arms exports dropped from 21% to 6.8% over the same periods.

By Tamilla Hasanova