NATO at crossroads as Trump demands more from Europe Analysis by Anadolu

As the transatlantic alliance teeters on the edge of a fundamental shift, Anadolu's latest analysis delves into the growing friction between the United States and its European NATO allies. With a reinvigorated Donald Trump administration turning up the pressure, NATO is confronting a moment of truth that could redefine the future of Western security cooperation.

In this high-stakes geopolitical standoff, Washington’s message is loud and clear: Europe must pay up or prepare for a diminished American military presence. The Trump administration’s push to raise the NATO defence spending target to 5 per cent of GDP — more than double the long-standing 2 per cent — is reverberating through Europe, already rattled by the war in Ukraine and fears of a resurgent Russia.

US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker has left no room for negotiation, branding the demand as final. Senior administration figures, including Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, are singing the same tune: Europe must shoulder more of the burden for its own security.

“I think there’s a lot of unease in the transatlantic alliance,” says Ian Brzezinski, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security in the US.

“There is a very tangible increase in European concern over the reliability of America’s commitment to transatlantic security,” he told Anadolu, pointing to “a bit of a crisis in confidence that President Trump has to address.”

From Europe’s vantage point, the tone from Washington has been equally unsettling.

“It takes two to tango,” notes Francois Heisbourg, special advisor at the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS) in France.

US military footprint in flux

As NATO leaders prepare to meet at a summit in The Hague this June, analysts are bracing for signs of a US troop drawdown in Europe. The Trump administration’s ongoing global force posture review appears set to curtail American military commitments on the continent.

“The United States has made it quite clear that it will proceed with force reductions in Europe,” says Heisbourg, anticipating a “fully-fledged domestic review” following the NATO meeting.

Brzezinski echoes this view: “Hopefully he (Trump) will use his participation in the NATO summit ... to reassure the Europeans that America is committed to European security.”

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has previously warned: “Europeans can’t make an assumption that America’s presence will last forever.”

Ukraine war: The deciding factor

At the heart of the transatlantic debate lies the war in Ukraine, now entering its fourth year. The outcome of this conflict could determine the fate of NATO itself.

“That will really determine the future of the transatlantic relationship,” Brzezinski says, stressing that a failure to secure a Ukrainian victory would “significantly undermine the credibility of the alliance.”

Heisbourg adds, “If Russia were to win in Ukraine there will be increased pressure on other Black Sea countries … This will drive the European effort to increase its defense spending.”

Despite joint sanctions and diplomatic maneuvers, Europe and the US are not fully aligned in their approach. While Brussels ramps up sanctions, Washington continues to engage Moscow in high-level talks.

“It is possible, but not likely, that the US will maybe understand that it needs to bring serious pressure to bear vis-a-vis Russia,” Heisbourg says.

Brzezinski is blunt in his critique: “Europe is not exercising its military might as decisively and as forcibly as it needs to.”

Europe's strategic awakening?

In response to growing US demands and Russian aggression, the Readiness 2030 plan, a bold €800 billion initiative spearheaded by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, signals a new phase in Europe's defense posture.

“It’s time for Europe to step up. It needs to demonstrate strategic power, bring strategic parity to this relationship,” Brzezinski urges.

Yet, questions remain over whether Europe's traditionally inward-focused powers are ready to rise to the challenge.

“Now is Europe’s hour. Now is Europe’s moment to stand up and exercise the power it has,” Brzezinski continues. “Because he [Trump] is not going to do anything more for Ukraine than the Europeans are.”

As uncertainty mounts, the message from Washington is unmistakable: NATO’s future will no longer be underwritten unconditionally by American taxpayers and troops. With leaders heading to The Hague for a pivotal summit, the alliance faces an inflection point — one that could either galvanize a new era of shared responsibility or mark the start of a strategic drift apart.

By Sabina Mammadli