New EU mission to Armenia: Yerevan is ready to switch its patron Does Moscow pull conclusions from this?

Without waiting for Russia and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) to protect its ”Miatsum” interests, Armenia apparently expects to find this through the European Union, and there’s already a certain response from the Europeans. In any way, as the Armenian service of the “Liberty” radio station reported the day before, the European Union plans to send a new observational mission to Armenia, yet not for two months as the previous one, but for at least two years.

(editor’s note: the term "Miatsum", meaning “Unification” in Armenian, refers to the Armenian ideology desiring to unit the Azerbaijani territory of Karabakh with the mainland of Armenia)

Unlike the 40-person group deployed on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border last October, now some 200 European observers are expected to patrol not only the border areas, but the entire territory of Armenia.

The fact that the EU mission will be extended became known at the end of last year from the statements of the organization’s High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, Josep Borrel. It was he who voiced the reason for its prolongation: the work of 40 observers in Armenia for two months was effective and “contributed to the confidence building in the unstable situation”.

"Today we are beginning a new stage of EU involvement in the South Caucasus with a transition team that will prepare the ground for a possible long-term EU mission to Armenia with the ultimate goal of promoting sustainable peace in the region”, a senior European official said.

Naturally, the Armenian side immediately gave its interpretation of Borrel’s statement: supposedly, such a mission is designed “to contribute to the reduction of incidents at the border zones of Armenia and the regions affected by the conflict and will provide a favourable opportunity for the normalization of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan”.

If we call things by their proper names, Armenia, struggling to grab the Europeans, hopes to get under the umbrella of the EU in this way and drag France somehow into the region through legal ways. Today, it is almost the best lobbying option for the Armenians with the help of Paris, now the main patron of Yerevan. Meanwhile, France is not selfless at all - it has long dreamt of plunging its teeth into the South Caucasian pie, and Armenia is now very comfortable with this goal. In general, the thought of Paris ensuring stability and security in the region seems very far-fetched.

The activity of President Macron amid the Armenia-Azerbaijan talks in Prague last year was a transparent demonstration of France’s desire to resume the mediation mission that it lost after the death of the OSCE’s Minsk Group, losing its mandate as a Co-Chairman. That is why this time, Paris initiated a new long-term mission to Armenia, after Azerbaijan did not allow Europeans to settle on its territory last October for the same purpose.

In the same context, it is not impossible to recall the scheduled, yet never held summit for December 7, 2022 in Brussels, when Azerbaijan categorically refused Macron’s participation in it, which the Armenian side insisted on very much. Baku unilaterally refused to work in such a format, firmly defending its principled position before Armenia, France and the European Union. Paris, as a mediator of the Azerbaijani-Armenian settlement, has completely lost Baku’s trust and therefore cannot be involved in the post-war negotiations. Azerbaijan has, thus, once again demonstrated to the world that it remains committed to its policy, which it has consistently implemented to date.

At the same time, while the pro-Armenian position of France is relatively clear, the recent actions of the EU towards the South Caucasus, in particular the Azerbaijani-Armenian problem, are not. On the one hand, Brussels continues to assure Baku of its close partnership and promising cooperation, yet on the other - sends a mission to the region (supposedly a civilian one, but certainly not deprived of military functions) without the formal consent of the Azerbaijani authorities. Moreso, even without notifying Azerbaijan. So, it is quite logical that Baku has questions for the EU about this questionable venture. The issues are legitimate, because despite the settlement of the Karabakh conflict by Azerbaijan, the Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations have not yet been brought to a logical conclusion because of the stubborn policy of Yerevan, there is no peace treaty, The process of delimitation and demarcation of the borders and the opening of important transport links in the region, as mandated by the Tripartite Declaration from November 2020, has not started. And the EU, as the authoritative European organization that respects the laws and rules of international law, was obliged to take all these political nuances into account. That’s the first thing.

Secondly, the EU’s decision to organize a new mission and to give it additional mandates completely undermines the atmosphere of trust and calls into question relations with Azerbaijan. Consequently, Baku’s dissatisfaction with the arrival of a long-term EU mission to Armenia is also valid because it may have a negative impact on the Azerbaijani-Armenian negotiations under the auspices of the same European Union. President Aliyev emphasized this fact in his recent interview with Azerbaijani TV channels. The head of state considered the dispatching of a new European Union civilian mission to Armenia along the border with Azerbaijan without Baku’s agreement as a deception, noting that the agreements reached in Brussels were violated once the mandate of the previous delegation expired on 19 December. At the same time, Aliyev stressed that this step will not lead to an increase in the security of the region.

Ilham Aliyev’s main message to the EU is that Baku is seen as a platform for negotiations with the USA and Russia, but the EU can become such a platform “if it behaved honestly”.

We would like to see the Azerbaijani President’s messages to Europe not only heard, but also understood, so that our European partners won’t again step on the same rake in the future, undermining Baku’s trust. If we consider the fact of a new long-term mission being sent to Armenia, everything is clear here - Europe is set to finally push Russia out of the South Caucasus, to expel the Russian military base from Gyumri, and to deploy a French military contingent there.

In theory, the scenario is acceptable, although difficult to implement. However, it is possible that, against the background of the great disappointment of the Armenian society with the Russian alliance and as a consequence of the increasing anti-Russian hysteria in Armenia, such a story seems to the Europeans to be quite viable.

It is even possible that such a plan is already in its infancy, and the deployment of a long-term mission on the territory of Armenia is envisaged to probe the situation on the ground. In any case, today there is no doubt that Armenia is ready for a change of its overlord, and surely the appropriate conclusions have already been made in Moscow...