North Korea’s involvement in Russia’s war: Strategic gamble with potential gains

North Korea is reportedly sending thousands of soldiers to Russia to support its invasion of Ukraine, with many more expected by year’s end, South Korean intelligence said.

While some officials express concern that the costs of this involvement may outweigh the benefits, others believe it positions Pyongyang favourably for future contingencies on the Korean Peninsula, especially if a potential Donald Trump presidency alters US involvement in Ukraine, Caliber.Az reports per Korean media.

The Institute for National Security Strategy (INSS) suggested that North Korea's military support for Russia is a preemptive move to strengthen ties ahead of the US elections. They argue that North Korea could lose its leverage with Russia once the war in Ukraine concludes, particularly as it faces sanctions and strained relations with China.

Former South Korean ambassador to Russia, Rep. Wi Sung-lac, noted that participating in the war could significantly alleviate North Korea's financial and food crises. The North Korean soldiers deployed to fight for Russia are reportedly earning around $2,000 per month, which could generate over $200 million annually if 10,000 troops are sent. Additionally, around 4,000 North Korean workers in Russia earn approximately $800 each month.

Despite producing about 4 million tons of grain annually, North Korea falls short of its food needs. Russia’s offer of 600,000 to 700,000 tons of rice would substantially help meet this deficit. The trade of artillery shells for food has likely eased some of the food shortages in North Korea.

Moreover, North Korea is believed to be receiving advanced space technology assistance from Russia as it aims to launch a military reconnaissance satellite. Ultimately, North Korea could secure Russian support in any future conflict on the Korean Peninsula, strengthening its strategic position in the region. Analysts emphasize that the military cooperation between North Korea and Russia is likely to extend beyond the current conflict, potentially serving as leverage in future negotiations with the US.

By Vafa Guliyeva