PKK announces disarmament: A step towards peace or a manoeuver? Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

The terrorist organization PKK has announced its disarmament, according to Turkish TV channel NTV. It is noted that the call of the leader of the terrorist organization, Abdullah Öcalan, will be fulfilled: "PKK agrees with the content of the call and declares that it will comply with the requirements of the call. From today, we announce a ceasefire. None of our forces will engage in combat unless attacked." The PKK statement also mentioned that they are ready to convene the party congress. In addition, they have put forward a demand for security assurances and for Öcalan to preside over the congress personally.

To recap, on February 27, Abdullah Öcalan, the leader of the PKK terrorist organization serving a life sentence, addressed his comrades. In this written message, distributed on Öcalan's behalf, he called for the laying down of arms.

Turkish Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz commented on the PKK's announcement of disbandment and ceasefire, stating that with the PKK terrorist organization’s declaration of a ceasefire, a new phase has begun in the pursuit of Türkiye’s goal— a country free of terrorism, according to NTV. Yılmaz also emphasized that the results of this process will be closely monitored by the government.

What does this event signify? Can it be regarded as a victory for Türkiye in overcoming one of the region’s longest-standing problems? How will this new development impact the political situation in Türkiye and Syria? In other words, what can we expect next?

Prominent foreign analysts have agreed to share their insights on the situation with Caliber.Az.

Russian orientalist and Middle East expert Ruslan Suleymanov believes that the situation should be approached with cautious optimism.

"In my opinion, it is still premature to say that an agreement on the disarmament of the terrorist organization, the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), banned in Türkiye, has been reached. So far, there has been an announcement, a call from Abdullah Öcalan to his followers and supporters. There have also been responses stating that the PKK and affiliated groups welcome this statement, but they are only ready to lay down arms under certain conditions. The negotiations are ongoing, and it is not yet clear what the demands of the PKK leaders on the ground are. We have heard that they are calling for the direct involvement of Öcalan in these processes, meaning his release or transfer to house arrest. These are still open questions.

If we look at Türkiye’s history, we can see that such attempts have been made before, and they all ended in failure. Therefore, I would not rush to conclusions," says the orientalist.

In his view, much remains to be done before genuine disarmament of the PKK can take place.

"As for Turkish politics, this is undoubtedly a significant event. I believe that Türkiye’s ruling Justice and Development Party, led by Erdoğan, will in any case maximize the benefits of Öcalan’s statements, regardless of how the political process unfolds on the ground.

However, it is still too early to draw conclusions about the situation in Syria. The very fact that Syrian Kurds did not participate in the national conference in Damascus at the end of February indicates that the issue of integrating Syrian Kurds into the governance of a post-Assad Syria remains a highly complex and far-from-resolved process," Suleymanov believes.

As political scientist and professor at Ankara University, Toğrul Ismayil, noted, Türkiye has repeatedly attempted to put an end to terrorism on its territory once and for all.

"Everyone is aware of the existence of the so-called Dem Party—a pro-Kurdish political force that is even represented in the country's parliament. Negotiations were conducted through this channel. At one point, certain conditions were proposed, but the PKK terrorist organization refused to accept them and even pressured its political wing. After that, Türkiye changed its policy, has now almost entirely expelled the PKK from its territory, and continues to actively combat it in border areas of neighboring countries.

The leader of this terrorist organization, Abdullah Öcalan, remains in prison. Prior to the current events, the leader of the Nationalist Movement Party had invited him to comment on the possible dissolution of the PKK. This process then began—debates and discussions followed, and ultimately, the PKK leader called on the organization to disband unconditionally. This was certainly something new. I believe this is directly linked to the changing geopolitical landscape in the region. The need for the PKK, which has been designated as a terrorist organization in Europe and the U.S. (and if I'm not mistaken, Washington has already stated that no further support will be provided to the PKK), has significantly diminished. Naturally, for them, dissolution has become a means of survival."

However, the PKK has not yet openly declared its dissolution—there have only been statements about a ceasefire. In other words, they claim they won’t engage in combat and so on. But this is not what is needed, which is why the Turkish president has openly stated that they must completely disband. Otherwise, Türkiye will do whatever is necessary to eliminate the organization by any means.

But what do we see here? By raising the idea of dissolution, the founder and leader of the PKK, Abdullah Öcalan, has actually given Türkiye a freer hand in dealing with Europe and the West. The fact is that European and Western countries have often accused Türkiye of fighting against the Kurdish people as a whole rather than against a specific terrorist organization. Öcalan’s statement has now removed this argument, effectively legitimising Türkiye’s actions against the PKK.

Türkiye has always conducted a just fight against terrorism in accordance with international rules and laws. Yet, the European Union and several Western countries continued to accuse Türkiye of targeting Kurds in general. Now, I believe this issue has faded into the background. At last, everyone has recognised that the PKK is, in fact, a terrorist organization," the professor explained.

He also emphasised that his remarks about the changing geopolitical landscape were not made by chance.

"Naturally, Syria now has a new regime and new approaches. The weakening influence of Iran and Russia in the region, the change of leadership in the U.S., Trump’s statements about this region—all of these factors are shaping a different geopolitical landscape. This means a new balance of power, which in turn affects the policies of various states and global players.

One could say that Türkiye’s position has strengthened. However, expecting everything to be resolved overnight is unrealistic. This situation has been ongoing for 40 years. The PKK terrorist organization has existed since 1984. Countless lives have been lost, Türkiye has many martyrs. It is not easy to forget all of this. I believe that, over time, the situation will gradually be resolved.

That said, some groups will still attempt to keep their weapons, and the intelligence services of certain states may try to use them for their own interests. But that is another discussion, another situation," Ismayil concluded.