POLITICO: Israel weighs harsh retaliation after Macron recognizes Palestinian state

France is preparing for a sharp backlash from Israel after President Emmanuel Macron moves to formally recognise Palestinian statehood on September 22 at the United Nations General Assembly, joining several other countries in the initiative.

According to two European officials and a person familiar with Israeli government deliberations — all of whom spoke to POLITICO on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter — Israel is weighing a range of retaliatory options. These include accelerating annexation moves in the West Bank, shutting down France’s historic consulate in Jerusalem, and asserting control over French-owned property in Israel, such as the Sanctuary of the Eleona, a Christian pilgrimage site on the Mount of Olives.

Israeli police entered the Eleona complex last year, which houses a large monastery, triggering a diplomatic dispute with Paris. The incident has added to the list of long-standing tensions.

Israel’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sharren Haskel warned on French radio earlier this month that the closure of France’s diplomatic outpost in Jerusalem — which predates Israel’s creation in 1948 — “was on the table of the [Israeli] prime minister.”

A source close to the Israeli government stressed that the question is not whether Israel will retaliate but how forcefully. The Netanyahu government wants to demonstrate that it will not yield to international pressure on Palestinian statehood. Karim Amellal, a former French ambassador who oversaw Mediterranean affairs, remarked that Israel “won’t stop at anything in terms of retaliation.”

A European diplomat said relations between Paris and Tel Aviv are set to “deteriorate enormously,” adding that Macron has been “the driver on this issue … and already the dialogue with Netanyahu is complicated.”

Macron stunned allies and opponents alike earlier this summer by announcing that France would become the highest-profile Western democracy to recognise a Palestinian state. His persistent lobbying has encouraged other countries — including Canada, Australia, and the United Kingdom — to announce plans to recognise Palestine or take concrete steps toward recognition during a UN conference on a two-state solution.

Leading the effort has given Macron a rare political victory that could define his legacy, but it has also placed France directly in Israel’s crosshairs. Haskel underscored that Macron himself is viewed in Israel as the key figure driving international recognition. Hen Feder, spokesperson for the Israeli Embassy in Paris, confirmed this point: “The initiative was created and advanced by the French president, and it’s why the main reaction will be vis-à-vis France and not other countries.”

Macron’s recognition campaign comes alongside broader European efforts to increase pressure on Israel over its war in Gaza. On September 17, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced plans for unprecedented tariffs and sanctions against Israel over human rights violations, drawing an angry response from Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar. In a letter obtained by POLITICO, Sa’ar accused von der Leyen of “empowering terrorist groups.”

Both Israel and the United States argue that recognition of a Palestinian state effectively rewards Hamas, which carried out the Oct. 7 attacks, and undermines ongoing negotiations for the release of Israeli hostages still held in Gaza.

Relations between France and Israel, already fraught by Macron’s personal clashes with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, have become even more strained. Netanyahu publicly accused Macron of fueling an “antisemitic fire” with his recognition plan in a letter, to which Macron issued a sharp rebuttal.

While antisemitic attacks in France have increased since Oct. 7, no official statistics have been released to support the claims by Netanyahu and U.S. Ambassador to France Charles Kushner that incidents have surged since Macron’s announcement. Kushner was summoned by the French foreign ministry after making those remarks.

Meanwhile, Paris is also drafting potential retaliation measures of its own in case of Israeli reprisals. According to the French daily Le Figaro, these could include closing an Israeli consulate in France and expelling Israeli intelligence operatives from the country.

By Tamilla Hasanova