Potential implications of US presidential candidates' agendas Biden, Trump, and the mysterious "deep state"

Potential US presidential candidate Donald Trump told a rally in Conway, South Carolina, that if Joe Biden is "too mentally incompetent to be found guilty in a court of law", then he is unfit to be president. The rally was held ahead of the Republican primary in South Carolina, which will take place on February 24.

In his criticism of Biden, Trump cited a recent report by special prosecutor Robert Hur that Biden is too mentally incompetent to be convicted in a court of law. “If Joe Biden is not fit to charge, they are not going to judge him with a crime, but it’s OK for him to become commander in chief?” Trump said.

Hur's investigation "found evidence that President Biden intentionally retained and mishandled classified information after his vice presidency while he was a private citizen", but the report said Biden could not be prosecuted.

Trump, who was indicted on 40 counts for the same offence, said the Hur report showed the "politicised, two-tiered justice system in this country".

Meanwhile, according to the Wall Street Journal, American voters no longer see current US President Joe Biden as having the qualities that the country's leader should have. The publication explains that the problem is not just the age of 81-year-old Biden. Many Americans believe he is not up to the task of being "a global statesman, a master negotiator with Congress or a comforter [of the country] in difficult times". Biden's mistakes have been particularly damaging to his image in the eyes of US citizens because he does not impress them as a strong leader and has not built an emotional connection with voters, the paper said.

At the same time, former US President Donald Trump is seen as having a stronger bond with those who support him. The paper stresses that, in contrast to Biden voters, most of them are voting for Trump because they genuinely see him as president and not as a protest against the candidate of the other party.

The US presidential election will take place in November. On April 25, 2023, Biden said he would seek re-election to the nation's highest office. His predecessor, Trump, has announced that he will enter the race in November 2022. He is considered the frontrunner for the Republican nomination.

What is the current balance of American voter sentiment towards Biden and Trump? Who is more popular? And, let's say, which of the two would be more beneficial to today's unstable world in terms of readiness and willingness to bring an end to wars and achieve stability on the planet?

Foreign experts shared their views on this issue with Caliber.Az.

American political scientist Andrew Korybko notes that Biden's cognitive decline is becoming a hotly debated issue among voters in the run-up to the November election, both because of a recent report by special prosecutor Robert Hur and a recent undercover report by investigative journalist James O'Keefe. The former called the current president mentally incompetent, while the latter filmed a senior White House official confirming concerns about his mental health. Democratic-leaning media outlets responded by expressing concern about his electoral prospects.

"One scenario is that Biden remains on the ticket and stays in the race barring any physical health issues, while another scenario is that he is replaced by someone like California Governor Gavin Newsom or even Michelle Obama. Each scenario has its pros and cons. As for the first, it would try to convince voters of Biden's mental health, even though many may not believe it. As for the second, it would confirm the aforementioned fears but could give the Democrats a better chance of defeating Republican candidate Trump.

Whatever happens, this issue is not as important as some might think. Russian President Vladimir Putin recently claimed in an interview with popular conservative journalist Tucker Carlson that the CIA had neglected the interests of former Presidents Clinton and Bush Jr. in its offers of cooperation. Many Americans have long suspected that elite members of the permanent US military, intelligence and diplomatic bureaucracy (the so-called "deep state") secretly control politics.

This view has been reinforced for many by attempts by some of these same elite figures to sabotage Trump's planned rapprochement with Russia during his presidency," the political scientist said.

As for Biden, his apparent cognitive decline removes any doubt in the minds of believers in this theory that the "deep state" does exist and that it is now in control of policy, not the president, Korybko noted.

"Nevertheless, optics are also important for prestige, and Biden's continued tenure as president makes America look bad. His many missteps prove that he is indeed an 'old man with a bad memory' - just as Hur described him - and many feel uncomfortable knowing that he, at least officially, is supposed to be in charge of policy, not the ghostly members of the 'deep state'. It is humiliating for many to realise that he is essentially a figurehead whose only real purpose as president is to legitimise decisions made by unaccountable bureaucrats before elections.

On the whole, the power of the 'deep state' is likely to remain no matter who the next president is - whether it's Trump, Biden or someone else. The former president tried to fight it, but failed, although he promised during the campaign to do more next time if the voters gave him the chance," he said.

According to Korybko, it is ultimately best for countries like Azerbaijan to formulate their policy towards the US with the expectation that shadowy bureaucrats will maintain policy continuity in the near future, which in this particular context means that Azerbaijan-US relations may continue to be problematic.

"The US decision to unilaterally worsen them was not taken by Biden, but by those elite members of his country's permanent military, intelligence and diplomatic bureaucracy who actually control policy. It is they, not whoever is president at any given time, who must be persuaded to reconsider their policies once they realise how counterproductive they are to their country's objective national interests. However, there is another layer to the problem, as lobby groups such as the powerful Armenian diaspora have a huge influence on the formulation of some policies. As a result, the deep state puts the narrow interests of these forces ahead of the US national interest.

Therefore, going forward, Azerbaijan under President Aliyev's leadership should continue to diversify its foreign partners to hedge against the possibility of further deterioration in relations, for which it should explore cooperation with BRICS and other multipolar organisations. Whatever happens, there should be full confidence that Azerbaijan's peaceful and mutually beneficial foreign policy will continue to prosper, accelerating its rise as a regional leader," Korybko believes.

American analyst and publicist Samson Katzman recalled that last Thursday special prosecutor Robert Hur issued a damning report concluding that President Joe Biden knowingly violated the handling of documents containing classified US national security information, but because of his physical and mental condition, he will not be indicted.

"This situation raises the question for many observers - if one of the candidates in the gaining momentum of the election campaign, Democrat Biden, is not indicted, what about the ongoing court cases against the 45th president, Republican Trump? Isn't the court system being used as a tool to remove one of the candidates from the race? How does the decision of the Capital District Court that Trump cannot claim immunity from prosecution for his involvement in the storming of the Capitol on January 6, 2021, stand in this case? Trump's appeal will be decided by the Supreme Court, and Trump's appeal will likely be considered.

Katzman said a recent Ipsos Knowledge Panel poll (www.ipsos.com) found that 86 per cent of Americans believe Biden, 81, is too old to serve another term as president. That figure includes 59 per cent of Americans who think both he and former President Donald Trump are too old and 27 per cent who think only Biden is too old. In other words, of the two age-related candidates, Trump currently looks more attractive to Americans.

"How will Trump's election, if at all, affect today's tumultuous world? Will it bring stability, will it end the ongoing wars? It seems not. In the short term, on the domestic front, Trump has the potential and the determination to improve the illegal immigration situation and boost the US economy.

On the world stage, Trump is firmly associated with isolationism and unpredictability. His comments on NATO and Ukraine are both puzzling and worrying. But the unresolved world problems that Donald Trump will try to distance himself from will inevitably backfire. And America will have to deal with them one way or another," the journalist concludes.