Putin faces growing pressure as US, Europe weigh stronger sanctions Bloomberg op-ed

Russian President Vladimir Putin may be facing a turning point in his war against Ukraine as signs emerge that the United States and Europe could finally apply the kind of sustained pressure needed to force him to reconsider his strategy. That is the argument made by Marc Champion, a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Europe, Russia, and the Middle East, in a recent op-ed.

Champion highlights two recent developments suggesting that the West could be edging toward tougher measures: U.S. President Donald Trump has for the first time laid out conditions under which he would tighten sanctions on Moscow, and the European Commission appears ready to move forward with a plan to fully deploy Russia’s frozen central bank assets worth about $330 billion, against it.

Trump, who last week drew criticism for his muted response to Russian drone strikes that spilled into Poland, posted a letter on Truth Social calling on NATO states to stop buying Russian oil and to join the U.S. in sanctioning China and India until the war ends.

Champion notes that while it remains unclear whether Trump is sincere, his message at least sets out a framework that allies could seek to meet.

Europe has already reduced reliance on Russian oil since the invasion began in 2022, but carve-outs remain for Hungary and Slovakia—countries still tied to Moscow through the “Druzhba” pipeline. Champion argues that Trump is correct in identifying oil revenues as a weak spot for the Kremlin, given that oil historically funded up to half of Russia’s state budget. A sharper squeeze on energy income, he says, could significantly undermine Moscow’s ability to sustain the war.

Although Russia’s economy has adapted to earlier sanctions, Champion cites research showing mounting strains. Banks are burdened with hidden bad debt, much of it linked to defence spending, while inflation and labour shortages have forced the central bank to hike interest rates to as high as 21%. At the same time, Ukraine’s drone and missile attacks have dented Russian oil production.

Champion points to encouraging signals from Brussels, where the European Commission has backed a proposal to use frozen Russian assets as collateral for loans to Ukraine, repayable to Russia only if it pays reparations determined by a future UN commission. While this avoids thorny legal issues around outright seizure, he warns that Europe remains divided, especially given Belgium’s role in holding most of the funds.

The larger concern, he writes, is that Western initiatives risk being piecemeal rather than part of a clear, united strategy.

Trump’s conditions may prove unrealistic, and European unity is vulnerable to the rise of far-right populists sympathetic to Moscow. Without ironclad commitments from both Washington and Brussels, Putin may calculate he can simply wait out Western resolve.

Still, Champion concludes, the timing may be right for the U.S. and Europe to press harder: Russia’s war economy is showing cracks, and its oil sector faces mounting pressure. But success will require both political will and a coherent long-term plan to convince Putin that prolonging the war carries greater risks than ending it.

By Sabina Mammadli