Reaper's reign ends? Drones facing new challenges in modern warfare

Business Insider unveils in a latest article that during the Global War on Terror, the MQ-9 Reaper was a symbol of America’s remote-control warfare, feared for its ability to stay airborne for up to 24 hours and launch precision strikes. Alongside its predecessor, the MQ-1 Predator, the Reaper became an iconic force in the Drone Age. However, the skies may no longer be so friendly for these giant unmanned aircraft.

With a wingspan of 66 feet and a price tag of $30 million, the Reaper is a formidable asset—but it has become increasingly vulnerable. The high-tech drones have been shot down over regions like Yemen, Lebanon, and Ukraine, raising concerns about the future of costly Medium-Altitude Long Endurance (MALE) drones like the Reaper.

Military researcher Robert Tollast highlights the dilemma in his essay for the Royal United Services Institute: "MALE drones can provide persistent surveillance, including through clouds with Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), but only if they can survive," Tollast writes. "And as that survivability is now highly questionable, it seems that the UK must look for alternative approaches."

In Yemen, at least 15 Reapers have been shot down since October 2023, resulting in estimated losses of over $500 million. The threat to these drones is even greater against more advanced militaries with modern air defense systems.

Meanwhile, in Ukraine, Turkish-made TB2 Bayraktar drones initially devastated Russian forces, but after Russian air defenses were activated, dozens of Bayraktars were destroyed. Similarly, Israel’s Hermes drones were downed by Hezbollah missiles.

The British Army is also grappling with its own MALE drone, the Watchkeeper. After years of delays, technical issues, and crashes, the Watchkeeper fleet was retired in March 2024, less than seven years after its deployment. As a result, the British military is now developing Project Corvus—a long-endurance surveillance drone—but concerns remain that it could face similar vulnerabilities.

The growing effectiveness of cheap, expendable first-person view (FPV) drones in conflicts like Ukraine—where they cripple armored vehicles and disrupt enemy maneuvers—poses further challenges. While these drones are inexpensive, their limited payload capacity and short range contrast sharply with the larger, pricier drones like the Reaper.

In response, military experts suggest a fork in the road for future drone strategies: low-cost, high-volume drones or expensive, fewer, more advanced drones with stealth capabilities. For Britain, with a defense budget of just $70 billion, alternatives such as Low Earth Orbit satellites or high-altitude balloons may be more viable. However, these options may lack the rapid deployment or timely presence that drones provide.

Ultimately, the evolution of drone warfare highlights a pressing need for innovation in both technology and strategy as air defense systems continue to evolve.

By Naila Huseynova