Russia's backyard to evade sanctions caught red-handed Will the West punish Yerevan?

No matter how negative the current political relations between Moscow and Yerevan may be, there is something that binds those countries especially well now: Armenia remains one of the largest suppliers of grey imports to Russia. The other day, Jim O'Brien, head of the US State Department's Office of Sanctions Coordination, named Armenia among the five countries that are helping Russia to circumvent sanctions very successfully by accepting the flow of sub-sanctioned goods. However, naming and designating does not mean clamping down and punishing. So it is not quite clear - if Armenia is once again found guilty of such activities, why does it get away with it? Is it still West's "favourite child"?

I remember when a team of Western sanctions officials visited Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan this spring, checking these countries to see whether they were helping Russia to circumvent sanctions. Yet Yerevan's involvement in the transshipment of grey cargo to Russia has long been known. And the facts speak for themselves: the economy of the extremely impoverished republic is suddenly breaking every conceivable growth rate. It turned out to be just at the expense of the re-export of goods to Russia. And these figures have been surging since 2022, i.e. practically since Moscow came under sanctions.

Armenia's exports to Russia almost tripled in 2022, from $841 million to $2 billion 411 million. It was mentioned many times, including openly at the Armenian government level, that re-exports played a significant role in this growth. Notably, Minister of Economy Vahan Kerobyan repeatedly assured that the country re-exports goods to Russia, but not sanctioned ones, because the government allegedly monitors it in order not to fall under secondary sanctions. Understandably, there is no transparency in such operations - Kerobyan did not wish to go into details. We are well aware that Armenian officials can easily pass off black for white and vice versa.

The growing volumes of re-exports are evidenced by the fact that trade exports from Armenia strongly increased in the second half of 2022: while in the first half of the year, they amounted to about $546 million, in the second half they almost tripled ($1,860 million). And whatever Kerobyan and other officials may claim, it is Armenia that is successfully helping Moscow to acquire sanctioned goods, primarily related to technology. The statistics, as they say, can not be changed, and it shows that the export of mechanical and electronic equipment from Armenia in 2022 increased more than 11 times: from about $60 million to $695 million, despite the fact that the republic does not manufacture even a hundredth part of such products. It is known for certain that a significant part of this products was sent to Russia, and a small part went to Belarus.

And now the West seems to have come to its senses. The same head of the sanctions coordination office, Jim O'Brien, stressed in a statement on June 8 that Russia, with the help of post-Soviet countries, had brought the import of electronics needed to continue the war in Ukraine to preoccupation levels.

"Since the beginning of this year, Russia has managed to bring imports of some key categories of electronics to roughly pre-war levels," he said.

O'Brien even revealed the scheme of re-exports: the problem, he said, is that European companies sell these goods to other countries, and Russia circumvents sanctions by buying chips, processors, and other electronics from these particular third countries. He stressed that Russia's evasion of sanctions remains a serious problem. And in general, it is not difficult to determine from economic indicators which CIS country is actively supplying Russia with electronic equipment, happily avoiding sanctions. And the most telling figures in this regard are those of Armenia.

One has to wonder why the West was so reluctant to rebuke Armenia over the thirty years of occupation of Azerbaijani territories. Why did it get away with the ethnic cleansing of the Azerbaijani population and military and environmental crimes? Why, despite four UN resolutions and formal condemnation by the international community, no one imposed sanctions against Armenia? Moreover, so many years after the 44-day war, various international institutions suddenly woke up and rushed to defend... "Armenian cultural heritage". Why is this blatant hypocrisy, double standards, and concern for the aggressor, and not for his victim?

Can the West not put two and two together and appease a violator of international norms? Or are the EU and Washington playing the fool again, seeing one thing and blindly failing to see another?

The whole world sees, but shrewd Washington looks away when it comes to Yerevan... True, as Kazakh political analyst Azat Akhmetov told Caliber.Az, Yerevan will still have to answer for such arrogant policy - it has too obviously got involved in juggling with sanctions.

"The fact is that Armenia has crossed a certain red line in supplying banned goods to Russia. This is primarily the re-export of high-tech products - the very ones that the West has decided to limit as much as possible for Moscow. And these are the same technologies that help Russia to survive by circumventing sanctions, to use them, among other things, for the production of weapons or military products that are directly related. First of all, it is the electronic components of various devices - sensors, and semiconductors. Thus, Armenia openly and disdainfully ignores the bans by supplying Russia. It seems to see itself on a kind of special list of countries that will not be affected by sanctions. Yes, in its words Yerevan is claiming maximum control of the sub-sanctioned goods in order not to let them into Russia, but in reality, as everyone understands, the picture is quite different. But Armenia, judging by Washington's statement, was caught red-handed and is included in the list of the US State Department and Western sanctions, and at least stage-by-stage restrictions cannot be avoided", says the Kazakh political analyst.