Will Moscow and Kyiv meet in Minsk? Belarus pushes for peace

During a meeting in Bishkek, Alexander Lukashenko proposed to Vladimir Putin that peace talks on Ukraine be held in Belarus.

“I hope everything will be fine…”

On November 26, a meeting between the presidents of Belarus and Russia took place in the capital of Kyrgyzstan. Vladimir Putin was in Bishkek on an official visit, while Alexander Lukashenko arrived in Kyrgyzstan for the CSTO summit. The two presidents discussed a range of issues relevant to both countries.

Alexander Lukashenko described the agenda as follows: “There are issues that need to be discussed. And we need to consult on certain matters before making further decisions. Although their number is not decreasing. In fact, they are becoming more and more serious.”

These issues are indeed highly significant. In Bishkek, Lukashenko characterised the situation on Belarus’s western borders as “the situation of a besieged fortress.” But alongside ensuring security, the Belarusian leader also found it possible to discuss efforts to promote peace in Ukraine. Lukashenko told Putin during the public part of the meeting that he would be pleased to brief him on the work Belarus is doing to support a peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian crisis.

“If you ever wish to return to Minsk again (which would be very timely), you know we are always ready…” Lukashenko said.

At the same time, critics sometimes claim that Belarus cannot serve as a platform for peace talks, alleging it is a party to the conflict. But Lukashenko dismissed such insinuations: “Even the Americans, to their credit, never raise this issue. They shut it down once — and that’s it, it’s outside the brackets. And there should not be any discussion about it…”

The President of Belarus is optimistic about the upcoming negotiations, believing that much will depend on the position of the American side: “I hope that, after all, everything will be fine. Judging by recent developments. If the Americans (I will now say publicly what I told them) behave carefully, understanding that this is a difficult issue and requires difficult decisions,” Lukashenko said during the public part of his meeting with Putin.

After the public segment, the rest of the meeting between the two presidents continued behind closed doors.

The following day, Alexander Lukashenko spoke to journalists about Belarus’s potential role in peace negotiations, its position on Ukraine, and certain aspects of his conversation with Putin.

“Stop the war, where other people’s children are dying…”

The President of Belarus once again stressed that the conflict in Ukraine could be brought to an end in the near future. He made this statement while speaking to journalists in Bishkek.

“I believe it now more than ever,” Lukashenko said when asked about the prospects for reaching peace. In his view, Ukraine will eventually agree to the peace agreement proposed by the United States.

At the same time, the Belarusian leader pointed to the unpredictability of the current, extremely severe crisis: “This is a war, and at any moment an unforeseen situation may arise that could turn the situation back completely. War is war.”

Lukashenko once again stressed: “I said yesterday that if the Americans behave like diplomats and true lawyers, this agreement will be reached. Because the main points have already been agreed.”

Alexander Lukashenko views the peace plan proposed by the team of U.S. President Donald Trump positively, but notes that European leaders are doing everything they can to oppose it, even though they have no real chance of achieving their goals by continuing to encourage Kyiv to wage war. Nevertheless, the Belarusian president believes that the EU will eventually come to understand the need to move towards peace, even if they do not want to accept this today.

At the same time, Lukashenko said: “I do not like any mediation. What kind of mediator would I be?”

He again confirmed that if the parties wish, Minsk is ready to provide its platform for new peace negotiations.

Meanwhile, both sides continue to voice strong criticism of the notorious Minsk Agreements. The “parties of war” on both sides of the front mirror each other, claiming that the Minsk arrangements supposedly prevented them from bringing the matter to an end immediately and achieving “victory.”

From the Belarusian president’s words, it is clear that the Normandy Format — which involved only European players — proved ineffective precisely because the United States was not included.

“And if Ukraine had implemented the Minsk Agreements, there would have been no war. And Ukraine would have had the borders it wants — those of 1991,” the Belarusian leader said, commenting on why the Minsk process collapsed.

Lukashenko also noted that today all CSTO members support peace efforts. This is evident at the current summit of the defensive organisation in Bishkek.

“Naturally, certain forces in Europe, as we see it, need to abandon confrontation. But I do not understand how they can do so when they are spending such enormous sums on armament and rearmament. The process has already been set in motion. But I think that both the United States and Russia will be able to stop this process by reaching an agreement with the Ukrainians on a peace treaty,” Alexander Lukashenko believes.

Regarding his meeting with Vladimir Putin, the President of Belarus told journalists that they devoted a great deal of time to discussing Donald Trump’s peace plan. However, much still needs to be set out in detail to prevent disputed issues from arising in the future.

“Let the Trump team not be offended by me, but it (the plan — editor’s note) was drafted in haste. I do not want to say it was written entirely on the knee, but it was done hastily. It needs to be presented in a digestible form. Without broad interpretations — everything must be specific,” the Belarusian leader said.

He also emphasised that the Americans have carried out enormous work.

“What, do you think they just had a cup of tea? Trump and his team have conducted very substantial and thorough work. With the Ukrainians, with the Europeans, and with the Russians. And Trump deserves credit for this,” Lukashenko stated.

Overall, Lukashenko described Trump’s peace plan as workable. According to him, the Russian president also sees it as a good basis for negotiations.

The Belarusian leader believes that the ball is now in Ukraine’s court. In order to preserve the country, Ukraine must move towards a peace agreement. Lukashenko noted that had the Ukrainian leadership listened to his advice at the beginning of the military operation, the current difficult situation would never have arisen. Today, he stressed, Ukraine must stop the war immediately if it is to survive. Notably, similar views are being voiced within the U.S. president’s administration.

Alexander Lukashenko also said on this matter: “If there is something you cannot agree on… And from this proposal, I did not see anything that could not be agreed. But if suddenly… then leave it for later — just stop the war, where other people’s children are dying.”

Addressing Volodymyr Zelenskyy with his characteristic bluntness, Lukashenko issued a warning: if he does not conclude peace, he may lose the country. From this it is clear that, for the Belarusian president, human lives and sovereignty are the highest values.

“What will the Ukrainians do? Millions of people. So think, based on the real situation, about how to preserve what you still have. And you still have everything: access to the sea, Odesa is yours, and Mykolaiv. But this may no longer be the case. In one moment, in an instant. Therefore, everything must be weighed and a balanced decision taken. And Trump is right here, pressing both sides.”

Once again, the Belarusian leader called for an end to hostilities: “This war must be stopped. I fear that there will be no winner in this war. It is a catastrophe…”

“That is what I can say off the cuff,” the President of Belarus concluded.

A voice for peace

From the very beginning of this tragic conflict, Belarus has spoken in favour of peace and has made considerable efforts towards it. The first three rounds of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia in February–March 2022 took place precisely in Belarus.

On the eve of the meeting in Bishkek, on November 25, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited Minsk, where he met with his Belarusian counterpart, Maksim Ryzhenkov. So, could the next round of negotiations on resolving the crisis between Ukraine and Russia take place in Minsk?

Yes and no. On the one hand, such a format serves the interests of both Belarus and Russia. For example, it would greatly simplify logistics for Russia in organising the talks: Putin would not need to fly over NATO countries. For Belarus, the status of a mediator state is also significant. It enables the republic to continue successfully emerging from the international isolation that hostile forces in the West attempted to impose after the 2020 effort to change power in Minsk.

Moreover, for Belarus — on whose borders a massive strike group of NATO forces is now gathering — a peace process and a de-escalation of tensions are vital in every respect. The administration of Donald Trump also views Belarus as an additional and uniquely valuable communication channel with Moscow, as evidenced by the recent official and unofficial visits of high-level U.S. delegations to Minsk.

And in the long term, Washington could well agree to Minsk as a venue for negotiations.

But Belarus’s peacekeeping role also has plenty of opponents. First and foremost are the leaders of the EU, who in today’s bloody drama have been assigned the role of “demons of war” and confrontation (perhaps not even by their own choice). In addition, Europe’s “hawks” have long been sharpening their claws for Belarus, hoping to install a puppet regime there. For this reason, the parties of war within NATO, as well as the local military-industrial complex, have no interest in any long-term stability in the region.

Negative reactions to Minsk’s peace initiatives have also been heard in Kyiv — despite the fact that Belarusians have always been very close to Ukrainians. Many residents of Belarus, especially in the southern regions, have close relatives in Ukraine, and the majority of Belarusians view the current war as a terrible tragedy. In Russia, too, there are certain hard-line circles who dislike the Belarusian president’s calls for an early peace with Ukraine, as well as his sovereign policy more broadly.

Yet one would still like to believe that the voice of Belarus — another voice raised in favour of peace — may become the drop that changes the situation and brings an end to this protracted and bloody tragedy…