Russia’s discontent grows over Armenia’s NATO involvement Western weapons may destabilise South Caucasus

Armenia’s participation in the NATO summit in Washington became another reason for Moscow’s sharp criticism of Yerevan amid the deteriorated Armenia-Russia relations. A three-day summit dedicated to the 75th anniversary of NATO took place in Washington, with Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan in attendance.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin stated that "by deepening cooperation with those whose goal is the strategic defeat of Russia, Armenia risks seriously destabilizing the situation in the South Caucasus, including to the detriment of its own security."

In other words, Moscow has once again warned Yerevan that flirting with the West could have adverse consequences primarily for Armenia itself. By the way, next week (July 15-24), Armenian-American Eagle Partner-2024 military exercises are scheduled in Armenia, which will likely not go unnoticed by Russia, especially since Moscow has strong reasons for this.

Armenia has demonstratively refused to host the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) Indestructible Brotherhood-2023 exercises on its territory and has generally frozen its participation in this military-political bloc. In this regard, Mikhail Galuzin's remarks are relevant: "Armenia remains a member of the CSTO and participates in numerous bilateral agreements in military and military-technical fields. However, instead of a constructive approach to discussing Yerevan's concerns, they have unfortunately chosen a different path." Galuzin's statements indicate that Armenia's dual policy is unacceptable to Russia. Moscow, like the West, wants clear certainty regarding Yerevan's foreign policy orientation.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk voiced this point clearly in his speech at the Primakov Readings international forum in Moscow in late June.

“Subject-matter specialists and politicians in Armenia understand the possible costs of such imprudent steps - the unreal attempts to benefit from both sides at once,” Overchuk noted, focusing on Yerevan’s European aspirations in connection with its obligations in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). Moscow reminded Yerevan that it has economic tools of pressure that it can use if necessary.

The Russian side periodically reminds Yerevan that a change in foreign policy threatens Armenia with the Ukrainian scenario. That is, Moscow explains to Yerevan that only Russia, rather than the West, can provide guarantees for Armenia’s security. It is obvious that Russia does not intend to let Yerevan live freely and, most likely, will continue its “soft power” policy.

It is also important to note that a strong argument for Russia’s dissatisfaction with Armenia’s policy is the provision of Yerevan with Western weapons, which aggravates tension in the South Caucasus and provokes an arms race in the region.

The positions of Moscow and Baku on this issue coincide. Baku regularly raises this issue on various international platforms, stating that Armenia’s militarization threatens stability in the South Caucasus. During a meeting with NATO Special Representative for the Caucasus and Central Asia Javier Colomina, the same issue was raised by Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov in the context of the regional security situation.

Baku’s concern about Armenia’s militarization is quite justified, given that the rapid provision with offensive weapons amid Yerevan’s refusal to follow the peace agenda can be used by revanchist circles in Armenia to incite a new war in the region. This is not in the interests of Moscow either as a new war in the South Caucasus could create conditions for the appearance of military personnel from non-regional countries on the Armenian territory.

Therefore, Russia is making justified claims to Armenia regarding regional security. While Armenia is rushing about in search of a new partner, Moscow will put pressure on Yerevan, forcing it to take its opinion into account.