Russian expert warns of looming military conflict between Baku & Yerevan Dmitry Malyshev on Caliber.Az

Caliber.Az interview with Dmitry Malyshev, PhD in History and Associate Professor at the faculty of world politics under the Lomonosov Moscow State University.

- Yerevan claims that Moscow is preparing a coup and openly speaks about attempts of the fifth column and pro-Russian Armenian opposition to seize power through terrorist methods. What is your take on it?

- This blatant disinformation appeared back in the autumn of 2023, and Maria Zakharova literally called it "misinformation". It is not quite clear who the Armenian government refers to as the "fifth column". In particular, the Baghramyan, 26 telegram channel, which is close to the Armenian government, wrote about the coup attempt. But almost six months have passed, and no coup has taken place. I think the Armenian government is thinking in the stereotypes of their overseas supervisors, who are very skilled in carrying out such events and have repeatedly successfully implemented them all over the world. The Armenian government should pay more attention to the problems of normal socio-economic development of the republic, and not to the search for mythical enemies, which Russia has never been and is not for the people of Armenia.

- What is your assessment of the probability of Armenia's complete "departure" to the West?

- I think that many representatives of the Armenian Diaspora are oriented and integrated into Western structures, and from this point of view, some parts of the Armenian society can be allowed to move to the West. However, the Armenian Diaspora has serious positions in Russia as well. Therefore, despite the bias of a part of the Armenian elite led by current Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan towards the West, this does not reflect the general trend of development of the Armenian society, which, again, in my subjective opinion, continues to maintain pro-Russian positions.

- Will Armenia decide to withdraw from the CSTO and EAEU?

- Armenia is the only South Caucasus state that has been a member of the CSTO and the EAEU since the formation of these international structures. Indeed, in late February 2024, during his visit to France, Prime Minister Pashinyan stated in an interview with the French TV channel France24 that Armenia had "frozen" its participation in the CSTO. He stressed that the organization had allegedly failed to fulfill its functions during the recent events surrounding the transfer of Karabakh to Azerbaijan.

A little earlier, in November 2023, Armenia refused to participate in the Collective Security Council in Minsk and to hold the CSTO military exercises Unbreakable Brotherhood on its territory. Undoubtedly, the symptoms are somewhat alarming. But there is no need to dramatize the situation. Armenia's armed forces do not even reach 50,000 people, they are extremely small in number, there is no serious military infrastructure, and Armenia received its main armaments just through the CSTO. France's phantom promises to supply the country with arms remain a distant prospect for the time being.

The CSTO, in fact, will lose nothing even if Armenia leaves it, but Armenia's own security will suffer a serious blow.

As for the EAEU, Armenia has been chairing this international structure since 1 January 2024, and, as far as I know, it has not yet made any statements about withdrawal from it.

- What is the likelihood that the Russian military will withdraw from Armenia in the foreseeable future?

- As of today, the Russian military is present in the region in two capacities: first, at Russian military facilities on the territory of Armenia, and second, as peacekeepers who have been in Karabakh since November 2020. As for the latter, this is an issue that Armenia cannot resolve; their deployment was stipulated by a triple agreement between Russia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia.

As for the Russian military in Armenia in general, so far, its leadership has demanded the removal of Russian border guards from Zvartnots, but no other orders have been received so far. Although there are talks about it, including by officials. And, answering your question, I may well assume that if the policy of the Armenian leadership develops in such a way, that is not exactly in the interests of the Armenian people, then perhaps in the foreseeable future Russian troops will be withdrawn from the territory of the republic, as happened in 2007, when Russian military forces were completely withdrawn from the territory of Georgia.

- Russia has repeatedly warned Armenia about the threat of a repeat of the Ukrainian scenario, but it seems that Yerevan does not pay any attention to this, blindly following France's orders. What steps will Moscow take in response?

- Yes, indeed, such a position of Armenia, which, however, is perfectly natural, is perceived in Russia extremely negatively. Moscow hopes that the Armenian leadership will build its foreign policy based on its national interests and not according to the plan written in Brussels.

What steps will Russia take in response? Their spectrum can be very diverse, given that Pashinyan behaves like a kind of Armenian Zelenskyy. Of course, the situation here will not reach war and military conflict, but perhaps Russia will limit its socio-economic and political contacts with Armenia and stop providing it with the massive assistance it currently provides. Maybe humanitarian cooperation will also be reduced, for example, the branch of Moscow State University in Yerevan will cease to function. But the Armenian leadership is trying to build its policy in a Western way, buying into the phantom promises of the country's admission to the European Union, which, to tell the truth, does not bring any serious dividends to the Armenian society.

- Armenia dreams of revenge, not peace with Azerbaijan at all, and continues to purchase armaments intensively. Can Armenia, at the instigation of France, launch another military provocation in the region?

- Conflicts like the Karabakh conflict, as world practice shows, do not stop by themselves, they arise at any moment. Yerevan says that Armenia needs a new military partner other than Russia. It should probably be France. On 1 January 2024, the self-proclaimed entity in Karabakh ceased to exist and the territory became a part of Azerbaijan. This has been de facto recognized by official Yerevan, but it is unlikely to be recognized by Armenian society, which considers Karabakh its territory. Therefore, of course, we should not rule out any new military clashes in the conflict zone.

- What is your forecast of the future situation in the region?

- I think that shortly the status quo will remain in the region in a certain sense. Armenia has recognized Karabakh's incorporation into Azerbaijan, but Azerbaijan has not received everything it wanted, and the problem of the Zangazur Corridor remains to be solved.

- Will the prospect of signing a peace agreement be delayed for a long time?

- Armenia stated a year ago that it had prepared the text of the peace agreement and was only waiting for Azerbaijan's consent. The countries continue to have numerous territorial claims against each other. The conclusion of a peace agreement should be preceded by at least a partial resolution of a whole set of disputed issues (in particular, this is the problem of the Zangazur Corridor, and the entire perimeter of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border is not delimited). Under these conditions, it is not possible to talk about the conclusion of a full-fledged peace agreement that would suit the peoples of both states.