Russian media: Armenia's risk of poverty and civil war looms if it exits EAEU

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk stated that Moscow sees Armenia's law on joining the EU as the beginning of the country's exit from the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). According to him, this decision is comparable to buying a ticket on the "Titanic," as the republic risks facing a severe economic crisis. Ignoring this statement, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan demonstratively held a meeting with the EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus, Magdalena Grono, writes the Russian publication NEWS.ru.

Why Armenia decided to join the EU

On January 9, the Armenian Cabinet of Ministers approved and sent to parliament a draft law to begin the process of joining the European Union (EU). During a government session, the country's Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan stated that the decision to prepare this document was made due to the dynamic and intensive development of relations with the EU in recent years. According to him, the European Union "has repeatedly expressed political support for the Armenian government" and has also participated "in ensuring security in the region," referring to the EU observer mission deployed on the border with Azerbaijan.

In turn, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan pointed out that the appearance of the draft law should not be perceived as an immediate application for EU membership. According to the politician, the main goal is to demonstrate Armenia's readiness to engage in practical work towards closer ties with the European Union.

Apparently, aiming to show that his statements are not groundless, the Armenian prime minister held a meeting in Yerevan with the EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus, Magdalena Grono, on the same day. On January 10, Armenia received a proposal from the European Union to extend the stay of its civilian mission in the country for another two years. Prior to this, officials in Yerevan had stated that the observers would remain until the delimitation of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, despite Baku accusing the mission of espionage and undermining regional stability for several months.

The dilemma facing Armenia

On January 9, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk stated that Armenia's decision to begin the process of joining the European Union is equivalent to buying a ticket on the "Titanic." He pointed out that Yerevan would suffer significant losses if it left the EAEU, as it would lose the benefits of free access to the Russian market and other member states, potentially leading to a severe economic crisis. According to Overchuk, electricity and food prices in Armenia will rise, while exports of Armenian goods abroad could drop by 70–80%.

"As a result, ordinary people will lose their income, and jobs, and will have to pay more for basic necessities. In exchange, they are likely to receive 'visa-free travel,' and Armenia will face depopulation," Overchuk believes.

He emphasized that it is impossible for Armenia to remain in both the EAEU and the EU simultaneously due to their "incompatibility." "Both unions imply the absence of customs borders and the freedom of movement of goods, services, capital, and labour. It is impossible to imagine these two unions converging at some point. Therefore, the proposed draft law in Armenia presents the country with a choice," Overchuk said.

In his opinion, by starting the process of joining the European Union, the authorities of the South Caucasian republic have already made their choice and decided to withdraw from the EAEU. "Russia will shape its economic policy towards Armenia based on this circumstance. At the same time, this is Armenia's sovereign choice, which it undoubtedly has the right to make," concluded the official.

Andrei Klimov, Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council’s Committee on International Affairs, told NEWS.ru that if Armenia joins the EU, it will have to leave the CIS as well.

Why EAEU membership is incompatible with the EU

Russian President’s Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov stated that Armenia’s accession to the EU is its sovereign right but added that it is impossible to be a member of both the EU and the EAEU simultaneously. "Being members of two different organizations, hypothetically speaking, is simply impossible. One represents a customs space, a zone of free movement of goods and services, people, and capital, while the other has different norms," said Peskov.

The EU and the EAEU are incompatible, as each organization has its own economic relations, product markets, trade turnover, and settlement systems, explained Viktor Vodolatsky, First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs, Eurasian Integration, and Relations with Compatriots, to NEWS.ru. If a country were to be a member of both organizations, it would become a gateway through which low-quality products could enter the markets of Russia and other EAEU countries.

"Armenia could automatically become the channel through which 'third-rate' goods would flow. It would simply harm our economy and the health of our people. The goal of the EAEU is, on the contrary, to raise the economies of the member states—creating new jobs and implementing joint projects that are already being carried out across the EAEU," explained Vodolatsky.

How Armenia can leave the EAEU

In general, the process of a member state exiting the EAEU is not complicated by legal formalities. Article 118 of the EAEU founding treaty states that exiting the union is the sovereign right of any member. To do so, a written notification of intent to leave must be sent through diplomatic channels.

"The effect of this Agreement with respect to this state shall cease 12 months after the depositary of this Agreement receives such notification," the document states.

However, before this, the member state is obligated to settle any financial obligations arising from its participation in the EAEU.

At the same time, the Armenian authorities have not yet sent an official letter expressing their intention to exit the EAEU.

How leaving the EAEU will affect Armenia 

According to Vodolatsky, Armenia's GDP has noticeably increased during its time in the EAEU. He believes that the EU's policies, on the other hand, are against the interests of ordinary people. As an example, the parliamentarian pointed to the private farmers' strikes in Poland and France.

"Thanks to the EAEU, Armenia has been able to raise its economy by 15–17% over these years. Armenian officials must realize that the European Union will not provide the same opportunities that the EAEU currently offers. Naturally, the economy will collapse, poverty will set in, unrest will begin, and civil war with all the ensuing consequences will follow. People will not have enough to eat, there will be a population drain, primarily to countries where the largest number of Armenians live—Russia," Vodolatsky emphasized.

When joining the EU, Armenia may not survive as a state, stated Alexander Razuvayev, a member of the Supervisory Board of the Guild of Financial Analysts and Risk Managers, to NEWS.ru. According to him, Armenia's only chance to survive is to maintain good relations with Russia.

"Armenia is only alive thanks to the Russian Empire and the USSR. Therefore, as a token of gratitude, Yerevan should have shown that it is needed by Russia. But there were no Armenian private military companies in Donbas, and I haven't heard of any donations from Armenian businesses," Razuvayev reminded.

He added that Armenia's situation is also complicated by its unfavourable geographic position. "The republic is surrounded by Muslim nations, and it has no diplomatic relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan. The situation with Iran is slightly different, but we must not forget that it is also an Islamic nation. In addition, Armenia has no access to the sea," noted Razuvayev.

He explained that a similar situation exists in Serbia; however, this country is in Europe, surrounded by EU member states.

In 2023, during a meeting of the Supreme Economic Council of the EAEU held in Moscow, Vladimir Putin stated that Armenia is the main beneficiary of the interaction within the Eurasian Economic Union. According to the Russian leader, Armenia recorded the highest economic growth rate among the EAEU countries—over 12%. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan confirmed this data. Later, the Russian president stated that it would be difficult for other EAEU countries to match Armenia's growth rates.

"It will be hard for us to keep up with Armenia, and we have already acknowledged that. GDP growth was over 12 per cent. This is a very high and significant indicator," said Putin. These words were spoken in the presence of the Armenian prime minister in 2023. However, just one year later, in 2024, Pashinyan refused to attend the Supreme Economic Council meeting in Saint Petersburg, citing the aftereffects of a COVID-19 illness. Furthermore, the Armenian prime minister, who participated in the event via video link, had a quarrel with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, stating that Armenia’s delegation would not attend the 2025 EAEU chairmanship session in Minsk.