Russian political analyst: Europe, US and Israel need Azerbaijan Armenia lacks allies

Russian political scientist Gleb Kuznetsov spoke with Armenian media about the trilateral Armenia-US-EU meeting held in Brussels.

According to Caliber.Az, Kuznetsov stated that while promises may be made at the meeting, the question is to what extent they will be fulfilled and whether the promising side is willing to fulfil them. Prior to the meeting, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and European Commission Chairwoman Ursula von der Leyen contacted Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, seemingly apologising for the meeting.

Kuznetsov believes both Europe, the US, and Israel need Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan has advantages, such as bargaining levers with Europeans and Americans, that Armenia doesn’t possess. Armenia needs to rely on itself first and foremost, as it only has one ally — the Armenian people inside and outside its sovereign territory. The expert notes that Armenia's key problem is its constant desire to find new hope. Armenians are likely to be disappointed in the real policy of Western countries towards Armenia and Armenian sovereignty.

In Kuznetsov's opinion, if Armenia fails to meet the demands set by the West, the West will abandon Armenia. The West has two clear goals for Armenia: to demonstrate to the world that Armenia has left Russia's orbit and to join the anti-Iranian bloc. However, Armenia cannot give up Iran, a partner country with which it has a land border. The West may make unacceptable demands on Armenian sovereignty, and when Armenia fails to fulfil them, the West will abandon Armenia to deal with Azerbaijan.

It is important to understand that the West has fundamental interests in Azerbaijan and will not pressure Azerbaijan to change its policy towards Armenia. Kuznetsov also notes that the West could request that Armenia close its border with Iran, withdraw from all organisations in which Russia participates and even interrupt air communication with Moscow. However, Russia will react negatively to such requests. He concludes that it is necessary for Armenia to be friends with both Russia and the West and that antagonising Russia will not solve all of Armenia's problems.