Russian pundit: West hopes for Armenia's swift withdrawal from CSTO

Russian political analyst Fyodor Lukyanov suggests that the West is attempting to establish itself in the South Caucasus and remove Russia from the settlement process following the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. He made the assumptions in an interview with Armenian media, Caliber.Az reports.

This task was partially realised at the will of all parties involved, the expert said. Still, after the establishment of Azerbaijan's full control in Karabakh, the Western platform was rejected by Azerbaijan. Hence, the negotiations seem to be moving to a bilateral platform, judging by the fact that the parties are trying to solve through direct negotiations.

However, Lukyanov believes, the West wishes to participate in the negotiations and act as a mediator in the signing of the final document, while also providing certain guarantees for the future.

"Unfortunately, this scenario has not been successful thus far, as Azerbaijan insists on negotiating alone. As a result, the Armenian side is pursuing an alternative scenario to obtain guarantees from the West by playing the card of leaving the CSTO and altering Armenian-Russian relations," he added.

The expert went on to say that the Munich Conference highlighted the need for an alternative scenario to confirm the West's presence in the region, as negotiations organised by the German side made it clear that Western mediation was not viable. Currently, Armenia is planning to withdraw from the CSTO and is seeking significant Western support in exchange. This move was not possible through the peace agreement, and issues with its signing persist to this day.

"In my opinion, the Armenian side is currently seeking to understand the West's capabilities in the security sphere. The trilateral meeting in the Armenia-EU-US format in Brussels is likely aimed at this goal. The West aims to achieve its objectives regarding Russia and Iran, but providing quick and tangible guarantees seems challenging. This is also why the idea of adopting a neutral country status is being considered," he said.

However, the pundit assumes that the West will attempt to hasten the signing of a peace agreement or establish new relations with Armenia by making promises, in the hope that Armenia will withdraw from integration structures and reduce or eliminate the presence of any Russian sphere in Armenia. Therefore, there are ongoing discussions about the possibility of suspending Armenia's membership in the CSTO and withdrawing from it, as well as about the insufficient resources in Armenia's security sphere.