"S-300 missile incident will force NATO to supply more weapons, air defence systems to Ukraine" Caliber.Az interview with expert Oleksandr Okhrimenko

On Tuesday, November 15, a rocket hit the Polish village of Przewodów in the east of Poland, near the border with Ukraine. The missile hit a granary where two civilians were killed. The incident occurred when the Russian Armed Forces shelled Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities, including western ones.

The Polish leadership issued a statement saying the missile was Russian-made. However, the Associated Press, citing its sources, said that the missile was allegedly fired by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in order to shoot down a Russian one. In his turn, US President Joe Biden also suggested that the downed missile was unlikely to have come from Russia.

Official Kyiv disagreed with such assumptions. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed confidence that the rocket that fell in Poland's Przewodów was not Ukrainian.

"I have no doubt that it was not our missile or our missile strike. We have to be involved in the investigation. I want us to be fair and if it was the use of our air defence, I want that evidence," he said.

Characteristically, Russia has also denied its involvement. The Russian Defence Ministry said that no strikes had been carried out on targets near the Ukrainian-Polish border that day and that the published photos of the wreckage had nothing to do with Russian weapons. Claims that a Russian missile might have landed in Poland were described as "a deliberate provocation to escalate the situation".

Nevertheless, after a series of contradictory statements, Western politicians agreed that it was almost certainly a Ukrainian S-300 anti-aircraft missile, but at the same time blamed Russia, which had fired about a hundred missiles into Ukraine that day. Despite this, the controversy of this story since day one continues today. One of the main issues is the possible escalation of the conflict between Russia and NATO. Among other things, it is being discussed what procedures NATO should launch in the event of a deliberate or accidental strike by Russia on alliance territory. Since this was an attack on a NATO member state, the question was how Brussels would react.

The NATO charter envisaged two options for response. The milder option is spelled out in Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which states that any NATO country that believes its independence, territorial integrity, or even mere security is under real threat has the right to convene a consultation of the bloc. However, the article does not specify what kind of decisions may be taken as a result of these consultations.

Article 5 of the NATO charter suggests a tougher version of the response, as it is based on the principle "an attack on one member of the alliance means an attack on all". This principle of the alliance is interpreted to mean that in the event of military aggression against one NATO country, all others are obliged to join the war on its side.

One way or another, the final conclusion as to whose rocket fell in Poland will be made after the investigation is completed.

Director of the Ukrainian Analytical Centre Oleksandr Okhrimenko also said in a conversation with Caliber.Az correspondent that only specialists can accurately answer the question of whose missile it was.

"Journalists, politicians, and other commentators of this incident can be mistaken. They can only speculate and express their opinion, nothing more. Only the result of an investigation can shed light on the incident," the political analyst believes.

As for the weird statement made by the son of former President Donald Trump about the incident who said that the US should stop helping the AFU due to the missile incident, Okhrimenko described it as nonsense.

"I am not familiar with the activities of Trump Jr. but I can say that birds of a feather flock together. If we talk about Trump Senior, he, as you know, represents the Republican Party, and this is the party of Ronald Reagan, who said that the USSR was an evil empire. And Russia represents itself as the heir to the USSR, so a real Republican cannot support Russia. Besides Donald Trump announced his candidacy for the presidency in 2024, and his chances of re-election are very slim and he knows it, that is why there is so much empty PR around him. Apparently, the son has decided to help his father with this.

In general, one should not pay attention to statements of politicians who are in opposition and not in power. Often they are just babbling so as not to fall out of the agenda. They do nothing and do not decide anything. The main thing here is that the incumbent US President Joe Biden and NATO said that it did not matter whose missile it was, it was Russia's fault, and that they would continue helping Ukraine," our interlocutor added.

In Okhrimenko's opinion, Russia wants to gain political points on what happened in Poland.

In conclusion, the Ukrainian political scientist noted that if NATO had closed the Ukrainian sky, there would have been no missiles and this incident would not have happened.

"In any case, this incident will force NATO to give Ukraine more weapons and air defence systems. Therefore, we can expect an increase in military assistance as a response to the problem," Okhrimenko concluded.